here comes the big daddy!!

well looking at a WV loop our upper level wave is continuing to dig southeast across CA and will soon kick out and start moving east as now the main jet energy is now at the base of the trof. currently, the best pressure falls are across southern CA where as of 0z the sfc low sitting over southeast NV right now. with the best pressure falls down there you could wonder if it will track southeast towards the Grand Canyon across northern AZ and NM could verify instead of going through UT and CO.

ICT has been saying all day that the jet energy with this wave has been underdone by the models which could mean it could dig further south then progged. WV imagery looks to be supporting them for the time being. either way, an area of low pressure will emerge tomorrow and probably end up riding east across northern OK and then turning northeast going through MO to between quincy IL and STL to somewhere between gary and south bend, IN.

snow should begin here in the morning as the WAA kicks in and gets thrown over some pretty cold air. it will get heavier as the afternoon goes on and there could be some impressive rates nearing a 1"/hr in some spots. what happens next will be key. if the low can track alittle bit further southeast then most areas should stay snow due to alot of insentropic lift and some intense precip rates with a mix possible down near joliet and kankakee. I think it will come down to a nowcast event tomorrow but right now for amounts. I will go with a foot possible out by RFD. 6-9" from sugar grove to the elgin/streamwood area to 3-6 for the plainfield/bolingbrook area tampering to 2-4 for MDW. subject to change and will try to do another post late tonight after the 0z runs or in the morning.

all in all. a major winter storm is going to affect the area beginning the morning and lasting to weds afternoon with wind gusts nearing 45mph and creating possible blizzard conditions for a time weds morning.

Matt

Major winter storm on the way!!

first wave with snow associated with it is currently moving across the central plains with a band of 2-4 inches possibly setting up from parts of NE to southern WI. really dont think this will have a big play with the monster but maybe we'll get lucky and it will push the baroclinic zone a tad further south for the 2nd system to ride along.

current radar of the snow....

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php

now we get into the fun stuff. A long wave trof will dive into the western U.S. with a piece of energy associated with it and will be in the four corners region getting its act together tuesday morning.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_048l.gif

This piece of energy will kick out of the rockies as a surface low develops nicely and moves out of CO and will likely run along the KS/OK border.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_060l.gif

The surface low will then track ENE across southern MO and then into northwest IN by wednesday. heavy snow will be likely on the northwest side of the sfc low. also, WAA precip will fall out ahead of the low in the midwest during the day tuesday and will fall mostly in the form of snow and accumulate several inches before switching over to a mix during the evening in some locations.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_066l.gif

DSM,LSX,DVN,MKX, and LOT have all put out headlines for this storm with the afternoon packages with LOT going with WSW's for the fox river on west for accumulations of 10 inches near the rock river and 6 inches for the fox river valley, I am right along the fox river and on the southeast most edge of the winter storm watches.

I believe there is going to be a large spread of accumulations ranging from 1-2 far southeast to possibly over a foot out by RFD. all of this will depend on the track and a 50 mile shift will have major implications. a big player in the precip type further south will be the amount of WAA and if precip can stay snow in spots due to the amount of lift and precip rates or if the warming will overcome that and switch places over to a mix.

all in all, a very dynamic and very strong storm system. some models bringing it down to 980mb in northern IN with some insane with gusts nearing 50mph creating blizzard conditions in spots. wouldn't be suprised to see DVN and MKX go with blizzard watches/warnings as we near closer to the event.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_078l.gif

Here comes the storm and possible snow

Upper level low is currently moving slowly east over TX with the northern stream energy continuing to dig further south across the northern plains. seems as low the northern stream is diggind further south then some models and the RUC has picked up on that as well as developing a low near the gulf coast later on in a location a bit east of the NAM, pretty far west of the GFS and in line the best with the Euro run of last night.

here is a WV 24 loop where you can clearly see the ULL spinning in TX with the northern stream energy diving south....http://weather.cod.edu/loops/US-WV24.loop.html

There is already a 1000mb low in the gulf off the LA/TX coastline. there was not supposed to be a 1000mb for atleast another 12 hours. if the southern and northern stream can come together sooner then progged, we could end up with a slightly stronger solution with a track farther west.

Have the feeling some people could be suprised with a 2-4 inch snow band from MO through parts of IL into MI from late tomorrow night into thursday. the surface will track NNE across the OV, most likely from northern LA up through western TN then along the IN/OH border. along the way it will continue to deepen and should get down near 992 going into OH. this will aid in a defo band forming on the northwest side of the low and with CAA and heavy precip, that should help cool the column for all snow and possibly some nice rates for a time.

will try to have more later after the 0z runs come in.


Matt

accumulating snow weds night/thursday??

Currently our system is spinning across mexico and will move into TX over the next 24-36 hours. the last few runs of the assorted models have moved the track of the low back further west, with the NAM being the farthest west and GFS/Euro back east with the Euro being the most consistent. HPC is also going with the Euro for now. Seems that most of the time with these split flow regimes that has the southern stream ejecting out and taking on a negative tilt. It will also depend on how far south the northern stream can dig south and if it can slow down allowing for the southern stream wave to catch it and phase with it. the earlier it can phase and the stronger it is, the farther west the low pressure will track. later phase/no phase, then the storm could run east of the Apps near the east coast.

All the models have got away for the ladder and most have a low going from northern AL up through KY/TN and then through OH/PA with the NAM taking it from west of memphis into IN then MI. if that verified then it would be slighty to west for us to get all snow, would probably go from rain to heavy snow. there is a pretty big spread between the models but hopefully by tomorrow night there will be a better agreement on the track as the northern stream energy getting sampled better with it being completely on shore.

looks to be a pretty dynamic system with it being able to draw in colder air than the previous one. I keep thinking of the 11/30/06 snowstorm that hit us pretty good with near 8 inches of snow. the NAM was the first to jump on the westward track a few days before and the other models picked up on it at the last minute. the pre-thanksgiving storm of 2004 also comes to mind as it was a setup like this with the northern stream energy running along the canada/US border and the a wave from the southern stream heading northeast. that was also forecasted by the models to end up further southeast of here but verified back northwest giving the area 4-6 inches of snow.

really dont see lack of cold air being a problem with this in the snow band, the crystal growth layers between 700-500 mb with this are pretty stinkin cold, temps range from -10 to -20C, which means good size flakes with this and the surface temps should cool rapidly with good precip rates falling into it. the snow shouldn't have any problems sticking. another thing to watch is how much moisture can be thrown back into the cold sector, GFS putting out alot of storms along the gulf coast and southeast U.S. along the CF, although im sure some of that is convective feedfack. very fun having a interesting storm to watch and forecast.

Still to early to say much about amounts but would think a general 3-6 in the defo band/trowal on the northwest side of the low. the speed of the system will not help the big accumulations. If I were to bet, id say the band ends up being from STL to ORD to western MI, would need to see more of a NW trend from the models.


Matt

two waves, second with snow.

well the first wave is moving through the area with a sfc low now on the IA/IL border southwest of the davenport area, looks almost stationary but barely moving off the northeast it looks like. we have been socked under some descent rain all afternoon as well as northwest IL, eastern IA, and southern WI. there were some thunderstorms earlier today down near macomb and still a slight chance of a rumble of thunder.

looking at upper air data off meso-analysis, the low is vertically stacked all the way up. what will be interesting to watch is what goes on around here tomorrow night into thanksgiving on thursday. the 2nd wave is still up in canada but will begin to dive southeast into the U.S. and will be in the dakotas by morning and in MN in the afternoon. this 2nd wave looks to be a tad stronger then the one moving through the area now. this will slow down the departing first low and a trough will develop and rotate around the west side of the low. it will reinforce the cold air with the upper low moving into eastern IA by late tomorrow night and bringing 850 temps down to -3 and colder.

progs are showing very nice UVV and the possibility of a trowal like feature developing tomorrow evening with the best lift setting up from eastern IA to southwest/southern WI. most models do have the defo band/trowal on them but the exact location of it is the challenge. DVN also mentioned some convective development possible due to the steep mid-level lapse rates. the question is when the changeover from rain to snow occurs. the last few runs the GFS has been a tad warmer with the boundary layer temperatures, where the NAM and EURO are colder. with as much lift associated with this system and the really cold air aloft, I would think to go with the NAM and EURO and the faster changeover, but will have to be monitored.

MKX did put out a SWS for their CWA with the possiblity of 3-4 inches of snow in a small area saying the most snow should accumulate south and west of a line from the dells down to burlington. right now think the best area for the most snow would be from the DBQ/CWI/freeport area on northeast to south of MKX but we will have to see. wouldn't be suprised to see an inch or so down this way on grassy surfaces if the band can make it this far south. some models are showing that, here is an example...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/images/hiresw_slp_048l.gif

with this being the 12hr QPF forecast

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/images/hiresw_p12_048l.gif

going to interesting to see what the 0z NAM says as well as the new short range models later on. wouldn't be suprised to see a 4 inch amount somewhere if a nice band can set itself up and drop some moderate to heavy snow for a short period. nice having something exciting to watch and forecast and getting giddy with winter getting underway.



Matt

Impressive first system?? maybe weaker with strong 2nd wave...

huge storm system in the early stages dumping a ton of snow in the WY/CO area this evening and should continue into thursday with some areas possibly picking up 2-3 feet of snow!! this is being cause by a very large trof carved out over the western US. something pretty rare for this time of the year with numbers of -4.5 standard deviations. the sfc low then begins to head northeast through the dakotas into MN and really intensify along the way. not fast enough to throw out bombogenesis but impressive to say the least and could drop to near 976 once it passes over lake superior into canada.

as for the warm side of the storm, and some severe weather will be the main threat with this and alot of gulf moisture will work its way north and with a strong CF, people are going to get some heavy rain the mississippi valley down through the southern plains. right now AR is the QPF bullseye with possibly 6 inches of rain in some spots. it wont be as bad here but we could see possibly 1-2 inches and some thunder thursday night into friday morning before the CF passes through.

We could of been looking at a huge severe weather/tornado outbreak if we had some dam instability but that is not going to happen. lapse rates are going to suck. wind fields are very impressive in the plains and midwest and with a tad amount of instability, damaging winds in any thunderstorm/squall line would be the main threat. with near 60kts at 850mb, wouldnt take much here to mix down a severe gust in a thunderstorm late thursday night. TX/OK look to be the area for tomorrow and then all up and down the CF thursday from IL to LA.

the interesthing thing tonight on the 0z GFS run is how the first system comes out a bit weaker and a good amount of energy gets left behind and rounds the base of the trof and sits in TX/OK at 90 hours. it then organizes itself into a nice area of low pressure and runs northeast west of the apps into OH. the models have been trying to develop a second wave for days but this is by far the most aggressive run yet with it. It would be pretty hard to get snow but not impossible and with a stronger wave and better UVV, it could create its own cold air and maybe produce some snow. interesting to see how everything plays out.


Matt

snow on sunday??

yes it is possible, snow in mid october. It happened back in 2006 and we get 0.3" and I believe it was one of the earliest if not the earliest measurable snowfalls to chicagoland. and it looks like it could repeat itself sunday night if things work out as planned.

a very cold air mass will works it way down across the northern plains starting at the end of the week and the midwest feeling the brunt of it this weekend. If a wave and run along the leading edge of the cold air and tap the moisture laddened atmosphere to the south then we could possibly see the first flakes off the winter, or should i say fall, around here. 850mb temps look to be hovering around -5 to -8 and that would support snow. would have to worry about a warm layer closer to the sfc but sleet/freezing rain will not happen with the lower levels being so warm. with it being so cold aloft it would either be rain and/or snow. usually in the heart of winter you can use the 0 degrees at 850mb as a rain/snow line but not this early in the season. the last few runs of the GFS have supported snow around here sunday night into monday morning.

the surface temperatures are still in the 50's if I had to guess so anything that falls would have alot of trouble sticking but if we got a period of moderate to heavy snow then I could see it sticking on grassy surfaces. its still 5-6 days away and the models could completely change and warm us up or push the system further south and make us even colder, but there is that chance right now and Im going to take full advantage of hyping up the first snowfall, and because its the october 6th!!!!

so I myself and really hoping for snow this weekend and will be looking at every model and every run until the event/day gets here. I am back in winter mode!!


Matt

Finally! severe weather around here!

With a strong CF on its way east along a very impressive mid level speed max and better moisture on its way north, it should set the stage for a pretty nice squall line from the IA/IL border across southern WI, northern IL, northern IA and lower MI.

SPC has outlined that area with 15% hail and wind probs as well as 2% tornado probs. really dont think a tornado is possible today unless more CAPE can be realized and get a get a possible discrete storm early on before things go linear.

with sfc temps heating to near 80 today and a shortwave trof progged to move into the area later this afternoon, scatter thunderstorms should break out for eastern IA to southwest WI by late afternoon in a rather weak instability enviroment with CAPE values near 1000, but 0-6 shear values between 40-60kts, this line should back some punch with very impressive wind fields. wouldnt be hard to get a 60mph gust down to the sfc.

would probably bank on severe thunderstorm watch by later this afternoon given the chance for some pretty impressive wind gusts associated with the line of storms.

supercells in MT??

well there was just a new MD issued for eastern MT with supercells possible later this afternoon with possibly some tornadoes in the strongly sheared environment.

The MD highlighted nice UVV in the area with a upper level low retrograding back northwest with lapse rates and CAPE values on the rise in the area and bulk shear near 40kts. I would probably target somewhere around miles city. storm motion doesnt look to bad and with the amount of shear a storm has to work with it should quickly go severe and have the potential to produce a tornado.

this is like trying to forecast where a heavy snow band sets up!!

LOT keeps extending the flood watch longer and longer and is now in effect until tomorrow afternoon which is a good idea. places in northern IL have got anywhere from 1.5 to 5 inches of rain so far with more on the way. keokuk county in southeast has recieved 11.75 inches and that report came in at 11am this morning so they should be well over a foot by now and its still coming down at a quick pace out there and should continue well into the overnight period.

synoptically we have an area of low pressure in northern MO that is barely moving with a sfc frontal boundary across central IL and a cold front extending down into OK. it has been raining all day on the north side of the frontal boundary in eastern IA and northwest IL with flood warnings out and rivers flooding very quicking and creating a dangerous situation. the sun has been out south of the front in central and southern IL and well as parts of MO closer to the sfc low. that has created some instability with SBCAPE at time approaching 2000 j/kg. cells have fired near the low and in central IL and have moved north enhancing the deformation axis band associated with old MCV/vort max.

there was even an MD out for areas near the sfc low/frontal boundary for isolated/brief tornadoes where low level shear was enhanced and instability could create a quick but strong rotating updraft, but I have not seen any good low level rotation or warnings with any of those cells. some have taken the low-topped supercell look for a scan or two but nothing special. there is still a small chance for a brief spin up with 0-1 helicity near 150 just northeast of the sfc low but should die down with the sun. best threat for any real thunderstorms looks to be from northeast MO to central IL area where cells are still firing in the better instability and there is currently a nice storm near 47,000ft just went of quincy getting ready to move into IL.

the RUC doesnt really want to move the 850 low much at all and keeps it stationary through 9z and therefore the best 850 winds/LLJ stay in eastern IA and along the mississippi. currently the defo axis is drifting south now as you can see on radar. I would say the axis for heavy rain to me looks to be from keokuk to wapello the east along and south of 88 and back around down to 80. you know how cells going up around the lincoln area where the better instability is and with better dynamics moving into the area as we get into later tonight we should see continuation of rain intensity and expanding in coverage. if the defo band can stall out for awhile somewhere it could drop alot of rain in a given area. my guess for highest totals would be where the defo band, strongest LLJ winds and dynamics intersect. so if I had to really nail it down I would say from keokuk, IA to princeton, IL for some serious heavy rain totals through tomorrow morning.

I feel like this is trying to forecast where the heavy snow band sets up cause usually when you hear deformation axis and good dynamic forcing moving into the area and even looking at the radar presentation with the true thunderstorms curling up into the colder air you think so just looking at it but its not.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php

any storm has the potential to produce heavy rain in a short period of time with dew points in the upper 60's and 70's pooling right along the frontal boundary and PWATS between 1.6 and 1.9. we could be looking at rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour and maybe 3 later on for a time.

also, tropical storm danny looks like crap and is completely getting sheared apart right now. really dont see it becoming a hurricane but still an outside chance once it gets near the carolinas. will depend what the through does to it and how far it pushes it off the coast. just looks like a heavy rain threat and big waves/rip current threat all along the east coast.

after all this rain moves east tomorrow evening and we begin to dry out, high pressure looks to build in over the weekend with unseasonably cold air with temperatures dipping into the 40's possibly saturday and sunday night.


Matt

LOT must of heard me rant....

Well I was sitting in the weather lab this morning with a buddy of mine ranting why LOT should have a flood watch up for the area. areas overnight got between .50 and 1.50 inches of rain with a stalled out frontal boundary across the area with dew points pooling in the upper 60's along, PWATS near 1.8 and heavy rain at the time this morning near DVN now over the LOT area. Clinton has already picked up 3.45 inches of rain.

and to add to the fact that there is a very pronounced MCV in southwest IA barely moving, this will move very slowly along the the front and will only aid in better forcing and create more heavy rain with the help of a low level jet later tonight. DVN's afd this afternoon said it could take until friday morning before the MCV moves through their CWA.

finally at 2pm today, LOT went with the flash flood watch until thursday evening (could be extended if the MCV moves that slow along the front). here is the text from the watch....

THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING*

A STATIONARY FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN SUBURBS OF CHICAGO RECEIVED BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 4 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.

as you can see on radar, http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php... the MCV is currently in southwest IA producing heavy rain and also the heavy batch of rain in eastern IA moving into northern IL. I wouldnt be suprised to see some totals up near the 7 0r 8 inch mark after all is said and done.

on a side note that could turn alot more interesting over the next few days, tropical storm danny is out in the Atlantic trying get its act together and should become a hurricane in the next few days and could run up along the east coast....http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html


Matt

EF-3 tornado!!

Our tornado that we saw was rated an EF-3 by the national weather service out of lincoln,IL. we saw it before it got to beason,IL and the damage we saw was in elkhart, IL.


A THIRD TORNADO TRAVELED FROM WILLIAMSVILLE...IN NORTHERNSANGAMON COUNTY...TO JUST EAST OF BEASON IN LOGAN COUNTY.THE TORNADO SET DOWN ON THE WEST SIDE OF WILLIAMSVILLE, JUSTEAST OF I-55...NEAR THE WILLIAMSVILLE EXIT...AT 319 PM. THETORNADO DESTROYED AN ANTIQUE MALL...DAMAGED THE CASEYSAND COLLAPSED THE CANOPY OVER THE GAS PUMPS. ONE PERSONWAS INJURED AT THE MALL...WHILE 2 MOTORCYCLE RIDERS WEREINJURED AS THE TORNADO THREW THEM FROM THEIR BIKES. THETORNADO CONTINUED NORTHEAST INTO WILLIAMSVILLE AND HIT ACHURCH...THROWING A 2-HORSE TRAILER ONTO THE ROOF OF THECHURCH...AND COLLAPSING THE ROOF OVER HALF OF THE BUILDING.ONE PERSON WAS INJURED IN THE CHURCH WHEN THE TORNADO HIT. THETORNADO THEN CONTINUED THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF TOWN DOINGMAINLY TREE DAMAGE AND SOME HOUSING DAMAGE. TWO HOMES LOST THEIRROOFS AND SEVERAL OTHER HOMES LOST PORTIONS OF THEIR ROOFS. THETORNADO ALSO CAVED IN THE SOUTHERN END OF A METALBUILDING...PART OF AN AGRICULTURE BUSINESS, ON THE EDGEOF TOWN. THE WIDTH OF THE TORNADO THROUGH TOWN RANGEDFROM 100-150 YARDS WIDE. THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED WAS135 MPH...DUE TO THE DAMAGE TO THE CHURCH. THE TORNADOWAS RATED AN EF2 AT WILLIAMSVILLE. 4 PEOPLE WERE INJUREDIN WILLIAMSVILLE.THE TORNADO CONTINUED ON THE GROUND...MOVING EAST NORTHEASTOF TOWN FLATTENING CORNFIELDS...DAMAGING FARM OUTBUILDINGSAND MACHINE SHEDS...DAMAGING HOMES...GARAGES...AND VEHICLES ONLESTER ROAD. ONE HOME WAS COMPLETELY DESTROYED...AND ANOTHERWITH EXTENSIVE DAMAGE AS THE TORNADO WIDENED TO 600 YARDS. A 19 MONTH OLD WAS INJURED AS THE FAMILY HOME WAS HIT BYTHE TORNADO. THE WINDS AT THESE LOCATIONS WERE ESTIMATEDTO BE ABOUT 140 MPH...WITH A TORNADO RATING OF EF3. THETORNADO CONTINUED THROUGH FIELDS CAUSING EXTENSIVE CROPDAMAGE UNTIL CROSSING INTO LOGAN COUNTY AT 326PM. THETORNADO WAS ON THE GROUND FOR 4.5 MILES IN SANGAMON COUNTY.THE TORNADO CONTINUED INTO LOGAN COUNTY TO THE NORTHEASTAND WIDENED TO CLOSE TO ONE HALF MILE AT SEVERAL PLACES.MULTIPLE HOMES HAD ROOFS AND WALLS GONE...OUTBUILDINGSBLOWN OVER A MILE AWAY...OUTBUILDINGS DESTROYED AND GRAINBINS BLOWN AWAY. THE TORNADO CONTINUED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREADTREE DAMAGE AND FLATTEN MANY CORN FIELDS. IN SOME PLACES THECORN WAS LAYING IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS...INDICATING THESTRENGTH OF THE TORNADO WINDS AS IT MOVED TO THE NORTHEAST.AT SOME PLACES...THE TORNADO DID WEAKEN...WHICH COINCIDESWITH THE ROTATION WEAKENING ON RADAR...BUT REMAINED ON THEGROUND. THE WIND SPEEDS OF THE TORNADO WERE ESTIMATED TO BE140 MPH AFTER IT CROSSED INTO LOGAN COUNTY COMPLETELYDESTROYING ANOTHER HOME...DECREASING TO 110-120 MPH AS ITMOVED TO AREAS BETWEEN LINCOLN AND MOUNT PULASKI. 2 INJURIESOCCURRED IN LOGAN COUNTY...AS TWO MEN WERE THROWN FROM AMAINTENANCE BUILDING AS THE TORNADO HIT. THE TORNADOCONTINUED NORTHEAST BEFORE WEAKENING TO SPEEDS OF 90-100 MPH,WITH A WIDTH OF 50-100 YARDS. THE TORNADO FINALLY DISSIPATEDJUST EAST OF BEASON AT 402PM. THE TORNADO WAS ON THE GROUNDIN LOGAN COUNTY FOR 20 MILES...WITH A MAXIMUM RATING OF EF3,MAINLY WHERE IT FIRST CROSSED INTO THE COUNTY.FROM WILLIAMSVILLE TO BEASON...THE TORNADO WAS ON THE GROUNDFOR 24.5 MILES...FROM 318-402PM...WITH A MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDOF 140MPH...WITH A TORNADO RATING OF EF3. THERE WERE 7 TOTALINJURIES.

looks like awhile until next good svr threat/low-topped storms later today

well after yesterday I am a bit tired and have finally got all my pics and videos uploaded to my computer and will try to get more up here later.

storms currently firing and going on under the stacked low up that went up in the dry slot over portions of IA/WI. could see a small hail/dmg wind threat with these as they wont be able to grow that high due to only MLCAPE values of 500 and LI's mostly under -3, although with ok shear they should be able to sustain themselves until sunset.

more storms out in the OH valley with mostly a wind threat and possibly an isolated tornado and more storms down the the OK/AR area with hail and isolated tornadoes possible.

enhanced pictures of tornado

special thanks to BeauDodson

what a day!! damage and tornado pics

here are some incredible damage pictures to a house near a corn field and a garage as was hit directly from a tornado just east of elkhart IL southeast of Lincoln around 3pm.

we were chasing the supercell and were traveling east of rd 10 and ran into the damage path of the tornado from about 20 mins before we got there.

we took some pictures and continued to the storm and ended up seeing two 2 tornadoes, although are to hard to see due to the contrast of them but they were for sure tornadoes.

corn stalks blown over

tornado 1, hard to see due to contrast.

tornado 2, very hard to see but if you look close can see it roping out, was better as we were farther away driving to it but roped out as we got closer and stopped, looked like it re-cycled and produced a good funnel about 10 mins after but never produced again.

a very tough day but it paid off, will have more discussion later.

sleeper day??

well we are on I-80 with a preliminary target of keokuk, IA. woke up to not as much precip down there as progs were throwing out. there is still a bit of cloud cover but hopefully the sun will burn those up as the morning goes on. I am a bit worried about the storms in southern KS and the upper winds blowing off clouds to the northeast, going to have to watch what those do.

new 12z WRF is putting out better CAPE then previous runs with MLCAPE values near 2500 in the keokuk area with 500 flow near 50kts. like I said last night, bulk shear will be great and supercells will be the intial storm mode. best shear looks to be in western IL where better 850's and sfc winds are. not bad numbers in southeast IA/northeast MO. If a storm can go up and ride the WF, things could be very interesting, we just need the sun to come out and give us the good sfc heating.

DMX and EAX both mention the possibility of tornadoes this afternoon/evening and with the wording of the 13z day 1, I wouldnt be suprised if a upgrade to moderate occurs with the 1630z or 20z outlook. EAX also mentioned cloud cover burning up/thining out quicker then previously thought.

tomorrow has possibilities but morning rain will tell the tale

well my chase partners and I are leaving tomorrow morning around 9am and preliminary target of northern MO, dont want to end up in KS because that would be a longer drive home, but if thats going to be the area, we will be there. not going to say a town to target yet because alot will depend on where and if there is clearing in places in the morning and what areas will have the best heating. my gut right now is somewhere east of KC.

CAPE values will be highest in in eastern/northeast KS and according to the GFS, winds are more unidirectional there but the WRF has pretty good directionalshear/CAPE combo. will have to watch where the fronts setup and look for any OFB's that are left over from earlier convection. 0-6 shear wont be a problem so supercells will be the intial storm mode before congealing into a MCS after dark and moving east.

GFS has a nice s/w moving from north central KS/southern NE at 18z to northwest MO by 0z which will really aid in helping CI in the area. moisture wont be a problem with dews in the upper 60's and LCL's should be pretty good. I am also waiting to see what the RUC is going to say for tomorrow afternoon and if its closer to the WRF or the GFS.


If you look at radar now, http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php

the line of heavy precip is almost into central KS from border to border north and south and the area of rain behind that in western KS is weakening. this line should strengthen some with the LLJ but you would think the line would be in MO by early morning and I dont see convection going up behind this line like the models are putting out.

just a FWIW, forbes tor con for eastern KS tomorrow is 4, northern MO is 6 and western IL is 5. he seemed pretty impressed with the setup but I just cant buy into the whole thing yet with all the precip progs are breaking out. I hope to awaken to less rain down there and maybe the start of one last good chase day for this year.

SREF images

0z images off the 21z run of the SREF

SBCAPE

Supercell Composite

Tornado Ingredients

Gosh why does there have to be some much precip on this ugh, it could just be convective feedback but I guess we'll see. anyways, these are some grabs off the new WRF that just came out. I just want to get out there and chase!



500 flow is ok, better in northern MO but the models have been jumping around with the placement of where the best flow is but have been consistent on flow being AOA 30kts in the area and up to 45kts in some spots. this is will aid in bulk shear being good and supercells do look like a real possibility if things play out.


When I see this I first get excited cause usually 700 temps would be warmer then what they are going to be for this setup and seeing the s/w's on the map like this is a very good sign, the last few setups have not had any waves like this coming through aiding in CI. but the problem I worry about with this setup is alot of waves moving through with 700 temps low, meaning alot of ongoing precip to hamper daytime heating.


also the 850 jet is aiding in early precip because as you can see its pretty strong. this is at 7pm weds night. with 500 flow out of the west and 850s out of the southwest and southerly to slighty backed sfc winds, you know shear is pretty good.

here is the dreaded precip map for 7pm weds evening. alot of ongoing precip intensifying by this time in KS but the thing about this run is the precip that is there from southern NE to OAX develops rapidly between 18z and 0z with CAPE values AOA 2000 and dew points in the mid to upper 60's, with this setup you will need to get west of the ongoing and find the areas of clearing and sunshine and hope enough time is aloud to heat everything up and get rapid development later in the afternoon.

here is the 0-1 helicity map for at 0z. best values in northeast KS due to the 850 jet being stronger but descent values back up into the OAK and western IA area.

0-1 EHI values are best in northeast KS as you can see. if you can clear that area out nicely and give it time, it could be very interesting in extreme northeast KS.

the best area is still uncertain as we are 2 days away but progs coming into better agreement on alot of things. ongoing precip to me seems like the biggest concern. will most likely be chasing this. dont want to have to drive all the way to northeast KS but hey if thats where its going to be, I want to be there. you never know, it could be in southern IA,northern MO or even western IL if there is less precip in the morning there then progs are throwing and we can get good CAPE cause shear is for sure there.

well new GFS is out so guess I will summarize that. GFS wind profiles look a bit more undirectional between 500 and 850. CAPE bullseye of 3500 near KC. it does look to have a bit more of isolated precip at 0z rather then the WRF. LI's near -9 in the same area and LCL's pretty lowest in northeast KS and northern MO.

Overall it looks pretty good. will probably stay up and see what the new day 2 outlook says cause Im a weather nerd and thats what I do.

Oh and just looked at the 21z SREF, that says western IL!! ugh computer models. I will post images in a bit.

August 19th severe weather

Here are two graphics I grabbed really quick. the first one if off the SREF model and what I loike to look at when looking for tornadic potential, that map is for weds evening at 7pm. SPC already has out 30% probs in the day 3 outlook and things look interesting if everything plays out.

The 18z WRF looks to have pushed everything a bit east into southern IA/northern MO and possibly western IL. KS also could be a good play but is a farther drive for me. synoptically the setup does look good. good 500 flow near 40-50kts and 850s and sfc winds are also good. CAPE looks good as does shear. ongoing precip will have to be watched as usual with most of the setups around here.

will have more later, waiting for the 18z GFS. I plan on chasing this setup if things pan out.