Monday, August 17, 2009

August 19th severe weather




Here are two graphics I grabbed really quick. the first one if off the SREF model and what I loike to look at when looking for tornadic potential, that map is for weds evening at 7pm. SPC already has out 30% probs in the day 3 outlook and things look interesting if everything plays out.


The 18z WRF looks to have pushed everything a bit east into southern IA/northern MO and possibly western IL. KS also could be a good play but is a farther drive for me. synoptically the setup does look good. good 500 flow near 40-50kts and 850s and sfc winds are also good. CAPE looks good as does shear. ongoing precip will have to be watched as usual with most of the setups around here.
will have more later, waiting for the 18z GFS. I plan on chasing this setup if things pan out.




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