What are the odds?? I will have to chase new orleans while I'm there haha

Im leaving to head down to New Orleans thursday morning and was just looking at the new 0z run of the GFS and started laughing when looking at the forecast for saturday afternoon down there and the severe weather potential it was showing. would be a nice consolation prize for not being able to chase the possible good setup the day before most likely in TX.

The system that will aid in the severe weather the day before saturday will continue moving eastward with an ULL centered western AR during the afternoon on saturday if this were the perfect prog, which its not, would have southwesterly flow near 40kts.



we also have nice low level winds at 850mb out of the SSW near 30-35kts pumping in some good moisture off the gulf with 850mb Td's nearing 15.



The moisture is for sure there with dew points in the mid 60's with backed surface winds up into the surface low further north across MO/AR.



here is a image showing the nice area of instability feeding up into the sfc low with CAPE values nearing 1500 j/kg.



and lastly, here is a forecast sounding for 18z on saturday showing the nice turning with height and descent hodograph.



the last time I believe new orleans was hit by a tornado was 2/12/07, which is when we had a pretty good snowstorm beginning that day.


Matt