As we continue in this active pattern there likes to be atleast 2 more potential big storms for us in the next 7-10 days with a possible small snow event tomorrow night. The models have been going back and forth with the strength and placement of this second wave coming out tomorrow. The problem is trying to figure out if and how much snow is associated with it. The past few runs of the NAM have been showing it further north solution bringing a sfc low from OK through southern MO and then into KY with snow displaced pretty far northwest of the low center and giving us a decent snowfall tomorrow night. The GFS has brought it north but not far enough to give us any real accumulating snow from it. LOT with their new afd monitoring this potential closely calling the NAM an outlier right now spitting out near 5" in some areas and this will have to be watched closely. The new 18z GFS pushes snow a bit further north tomorrow giving us maybe a few inches.
18z NAM for tomorrow night showing the snow over northern IL
The next one that looks to hit somewhere in the midwest thursday/friday is currently off the coast of BC out in the pacific and is forecasted to dive south into the pac NW and and continue south off the coast of california. The GFS/Euro are in pretty good agreement with this one and they both then turn it east and eject the wave out of AZ/NM and into the plains. The NAM is close to the other models regarding the placement of the southern stream wave at 84hrs but it has the northern stream system diving a bit further south. Although it doesn't look that impressive aloft, given the continuation of a strong baroclinic zone across the plains and into the midwest, this still has potential to be a strong low level cyclone. both models are bringing it down to around 996mb (12z GFS is a bit weaker but previous runs have been showing it stronger) and I think a stronger solution is a good possibility given the baro zone and it will have a good deal of moisture to work with. we dont need these really strong ULL's to get a big system, look at this current system, strong thermal gradient for the storm to ride along and we get a strongly forced frontogenesis band with heavy precipitaton for alot of areas in the midwest.
12z Euro showing the system late this coming week
This is like the book "And then there were none" haha but counting up, not down. The Euro/GFS/GEM all have been advertising another big system with a trof diving down into the west next weekend and kicking out into the plains going nuetral and eventally neg tilt looking quite impressive on the Euro. It is still far out to get into the details but the potential is there and with the system after system coming out, each one has to be looked at. Can't help but wonder what tornado season could be like if we stay active getting into april/may with abundant moisture.
H5 pattern showing a impressive negatively tilted s/w trof, 12z Euro
not to get ahead of ourselves but there are more storms after 216hr but no point in talking about those....yet.
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