My Top 10 weather events of 2010

After turning the clock to 2011 today I thought I would go back and pick out my top 10 events I chase and/or documented this past year. I know I didn't have as an exciting year as others chasing wise and seeing alot of great tornadoes this year but I do think mine was rather exciting seeing my fair share of tornadoes and seeing alot of good events close to home or "on" my house for that matter.

We had a pretty good winter here with alot of good snow events and the good luck seemed to continue right on into spring seeing alot of great storms and tornadoes in the plains, bagging some tornadoes on the home turf and some good events back home in the late summer months. This was probably the best year I can remember for storms in northern IL that I have been apart of.

10. May 7th- early morning thunderstorms on my birthday. It looked like for a few days leading up to my birthday that there was going to be a pretty good chance of some rumblers during the morning hours so I was pretty excited. It was an hour past midnight and storms were moving in from the WSW and I was hoping they would be good enough to produce some descent lightning. And sure enough they did, giving me an early birthday present that morning. Also, videos take too long to upload on here so I'm just going to put up the youtube links for them.





9. January 8th- During the early morning hours an intense LES band making its way all the way inland to eastern Kane county producing the heaviest snowfall rate I have seen while living in Batavia, 1.1" in 20 minutes. I was watching this band for atleast 2 hours on radar hoping it would make it out here and when it got here, it poured snow!



http://www.youtube.com/user/MrTORN80#p/u/48/xka1GkhS-eE


8. August 4th- The 2 year anniversay of the 8/4/08 Derecho..turns out mother nature likes certain dates. An impressive line of storms marched eastward during the morning hours producing strong winds across the area as the shelf cloud itself was probably moving over 60mph as you will see in the video. Some people even thought it was a timelapse at first!



http://www.youtube.com/user/MrTORN80#p/u/9/_7_J9y0QBYo

7. August 13th- The day of the shelf in northern Dekalb and Kane county. A line of storms produced a pretty good shelf cloud moving at a pretty low speed that I was able to follow for a good two hours just sitting out on open country roads and enjoying mother nature at her best.





http://www.youtube.com/user/MrTORN80#p/u/7/TS_TxHiC3No

6. May 19th. Being able to see the Leedy, OK tornado from TCU to tornadogenesis was very cool. We were right on it from the beginning and only got closer and watched the tornado touchdown from under 1/2 mile way. I have a good video of tornadogenesis but want to make it a timelapse before I put it up.



Tornado!



5. April 6th- After a chase bust the day before in northern MO, I was asleep the next morning and around 7am, I heard something pounding the roof. I knew instantly it was hail, most likely from leftover storms the night before that went through IA. I quickly ran downstairs with my camera and shot a good video of quarter to occasional golf ball sized hail pounding our deck in the backyard. The biggest hail I've seen at my house! Besides a tornado warning at 6am this past November, the hail was a great alarm! Here is a radar image of the storm that did the damage..probably about 70% of the homes in my neighborhood got new roofs because of the hail.

71dbz core!



http://www.youtube.com/user/MrTORN80#p/u/29/yrJGzvBpl6U


4. January 1st/2nd- LES event in northwest IN/southwest MI. Went over to the LES belt to document a setup that was expected to produce large amounts of snow with impressive snowfall rates. Adam, Sam, and I left during the evening on the 1st of the year to run into +SN as we neared the MI border and were lead by a state trooper at 30mph with snow covered highways. We then spent the whole night out in the band getting under the heaviest part of it. The next morning we spent in a BK in Watervliet, MI where they had near a foot of snow on the ground and going in and out of +SN the entire afternoon.




I shot this video outside of the BK under an intense LES band.

http://www.youtube.com/user/MrTORN80#p/u/45/fjzbnFxYYRk


3. May 22nd- The famous Bowdle day without seeing the big monster tornado. We did see the first large tornado at a distance but thanks to power lines down on the road we had to go a good 30 minutes out of the way to get back into position only to end up a quarter mile north of a large rain wrapped tornado with baseball hail to our immediate north.






2. June 5th- Illinois tornadoes, This day was showing big potential for a few days along the warm front in IL with great mid-level support, instability, and lots of moisture. But...we were sitting in extreme southeast IA around 6pm socked under clouds with horrible low-level lapse rates and if someone would of told us we would see three great tornadoes before nightfall, the six of us wouldn't of believed it. We decided to drive back into IL through Burlington folling a descent shower that rapidly grew into a mini supercell and eventually putting down tornado after tornado for us from Yates City to Elmwood to just west of Peoria.

1st tornado

http://www.youtube.com/user/MrTORN80#p/u/19/28Kjo5FJv34



It was like a scene out of twister...driving on a gravel road with a small valley and then a hill and so on, and then going down into a valley we saw a funnel and 10 seconds later getting to the top of the hill it was on the ground! It was amazing the amount of lightning near this tornado!

http://www.youtube.com/user/MrTORN80#p/u/18/pVRzIRv8nos

2nd tornado



great structure!

3rd tornado on video

http://www.youtube.com/user/MrTORN80#p/u/16/1mKC2L0FFrw


1. May 18th- It came down to my #2 pick and this one but I picked this day because the longevity of the day as well as seeing three different supercells that produced four tornadoes. Our target area this day was Dalhart, TX and didn't have to go that far after that to see what ended up being my favorite chase day of the year. We saw an amazing structured supercell near Dumas, TX that produced two brief tornadoes before this image.



radar image at the time of the picture above



this storm went on to produce another tornado Stinnett but we left it before that and hauled back west to catch another monster of a supercell that ended up giving me my first night tornado, and it was a big one!



after this, we caught another supercell directly to the northwest of this one, as it too, produced another large tornado just west of Stratford.


Here is to 2011 being just as good or even better, filled with lots of photogenic tornadoes and thundersnow!


Matt

Old Man Winter...."I'm Back"

Well we have got off to a late start in the snow department here in northern IL so far but it seems like as we turn the page to December we really start seeing the snow flying. After the first measurable snow the other day of 0.1" we should blow way past that total with this snow system coming for tomorrow night into saturday. This is our first sizeable snowfall of the season

This is a clipper like system but not a real clipper as its not going up around the ridge and the sfc low diving southeast pretty quickly like a typical clipper des. Its more of the 850mb low and the track of that with the sfc low being further south moving southeast to ESE across the central plains and into MO and then KY with band of snow on the northside closer to where the 850mb low is.

sfc low track



As this sytem is getting its act together warm air advection will be taking place and running up and over the cold air causing snow to break out in a northwest to southeast oriented band streaking to the southeast along the 850mb low track and into our area by late tomorrow night with the heaviest snow falling from about 10pm to the late morning hours on saturday with possible lake enhanced/lake effect snowfall after that in the afternoon and evening.





There are things working for this system and things not working to help create a good snowfall. Its going to be a quick hitter, probably a good 12 hour period of moderate snow but the snow ratios will be around 13/14:1 which will be a powdery type. There will also be good snow growth given the depth of the DGZ. There is also could be some nice fronto banding which would aid in heavier snowfall rates.

here is an image showing the amount of lift going on in our snow system




this is a map showing the probability of the depth of the DGZ being greater than 100mb allowing for good snow growth



Another thing to watch for is a possible meso low forming out over lake michigan and even coming onshore which could enhance snowfall amounts near the lake saturday afternoon and evening. meso lows are more favorable in weak synoptic flow environments, which is what we will have on the north and northeast side of the 850mb low. The flow from surface to 800mb is weak easterly to northeasterly flow, with no significant flow above that until you get up to about 600mb.

here you can see the LSX WRF picking op on a possible meso low moving down the lake and actually comes onshore in northeast IL



as for amounts, Im still riding my 3-6" call from yesterday for area wide with heaviest near the lake due to lake enhancement/lake effect snow and guess LOT will go with a winter weather advisory for tomorrow night into saturday afternoon. here is an image of total QPF run off a hi res WRF

First heavy snow event!!

Well I haven't posted in quite awhile and there has sure been some events where I should have, but now we have snowstorms to forecast and watch and this is what I love doing, being up to my neck in data. So even though the first good snow event of the winter, or should I say fall...(with temps in the 60's and 70's here this week) isn't over northern IL, I am still geeking out of this system because it is fairly impressive and should have some moderate to heavy snow accumulations associated with it beginning tonight and through the day tomorrow from northwest IA to southern/central MN to to norhwest WI by tomorrow night.

Like always I will start with the 24 hour WV loop

http://weather.cod.edu/loops/US-WV24.loop.html

We currently have our upper level trof moving into the midwest with well defined vort max over the NE/IA border reflected by the closed 700mb low. this system has been moving northeast throughout the evening and intensifying nicely as it does so. precip has also been steadily increasing in coverage and intensity from northeast KS up to the MN/IA border. The temperatures in the area have been dropping throughout the afternoon and evening but are marginal for snow but due to some good CAA going on and the intense precip rates, rain has been able to changeover to snow in some areas and has been quite heavy at that with a few lightning strikes in the OAX area earlier due to CCB's

At the time before that, the temps were above freezing up to 800mb but due to the insane amount of insentropic ascent going on, the 925mb temps crash 3 to 4 degrees in an hour which lead the the BL temps to cool below freezing to allow for snow to reach the surface. This is what happened this morning in AMA where they had +TSSN with the column not supportive of snow but due to the amount of convection, it was able to make it all the way down.

Here is the 0z OAX sounding..



Over the past few hours the deformation band has really began to take off and areas have began to changeover to snow and the temps/dew points slowly drop to near or below freezing. There is a really nice moisture plume that is feeding northwestward into the colder air. It looks like the snow axis will follow the H85-H7 frontogenesis axis. Also, the dry slot was filling in with precip from southeast NE up into southwest NE.



The deformation band will continue to move northeast overnight into southern/central MN where there are currently winter storm warnings in place for 6-10" of snow. I wouldn't be suprised if there ended up being a total near a foot given the intense precip rates/possible thundersnow due to it being pretty unstable aloft, and the dynamics this thing has going for it. all in all, a nice, intense first snow system to forecast for.




Hopefully this is a sign of things to come this winter!


Matt

tuesday potential on the home turf??

well tuesday looks very interesting looking at the new NAM. MCS moves across western/central IL during the morning/early afternoon hours most likely laying out a nice boundary with storms going on that in the evening. mid-level flow is alright between 25kt-35kts but the low level shear is quite good given the strong 850's in the area and you add big amounts of instability and upper 70's dew points with a sfc low in southeast IA and you got a problem. have already looked at some soundings and the GBG and PIA soundings are quite nice with good turning. the CAP might be a problem with H7 temps between 12-14 and CIN at -49 on the GBG sounding at 0z.

will post more later on the setup.

will not be able to chase though due to work.

write up for tues/weds severe and tornado potential

Well as much as it hurts to look at the forecast models for the next few days since I can't chase I still will do it anyways cause I love to forecast these events. Weds looks to be the bigger of the two days but tues still looks pretty descent in the dakotas.

As a upper trof moves in from the west with better mid and upper level winds associated with it, moisture will begin to return from the south and west as a dryline sets itself up in the dakotas and further south into NE. As Victor and I were just discussing tomorrow looks tough as it looks like maybe two possible targets. One being down possibly in NE where the better instability and moisture is being pegged but away from the better mid-level winds or playing further north in eastern SD under the better winds but less juice but still sufficient. I personally like the northern target with the better wind profiles but as Victor said further south "big CAPE kicks big ass"

500mb speeds at 0z


MLCAPE at 0z



As a target for tomorrow I like Mitchell with possibility of heading north.

Now comes the fun part or day for that matter. I will just go out and say it, play nw KS on weds! It would take some real kahonas to blow off MN/IA and do that :) but I wouldn't considering this setup is going to be a repeat of 6/17 in the AEL area. This setup just looks "good day" 50kts from the WSW at H5, good strong SW H85 winds and nicely backed sfc winds into southern/southeast MN and northern/northeast IA. As Victor pointed out, there looks to be a diffuse warm front from southern MN down across northeast IA. The wind profiles in that area are mmmm good. 0-1 SRH AOA 200 in northeast IA at 0z and only gets better as time goes on.

12z NAM showing CAPE values AOA 3500 j/kg with dew points in the mid 70's possibly nearing 80!


thank you corn!


just look at that theta-e! wow!


Target for weds- sit in AEL to possibly head east on 90 or south on 35 to head into northern or northeast IA.

One last images to look at for tornado potential off the 9z SREF for 21z on Weds. last time a 50 was shown...4/22...5/10...6/5




Matt

sleeper day in CO??

The new 12z WRF is showing a nice signal for the TX PH but I really dont like the weak upper level winds as well as what the LCL's will be in that area. Its going to take quite a bit of convergence along the dryline to get something to go. The H7 temps are progged to be quite high. I wouldn't rule out that area for an isolated storm later this evening but I like the northeast CO play alot more.

Like the Brush to Yuma area for supercells later this afternoon. dew points are already in the low 50's in nw KS/ne KS/nw NE per the 16z obs. The shear is amazing in the area with really nice low level hodographs. will be interesting to see if a denver cyclone can develop later this afternoon.


We are leaving Garden City now.

4 tornadoes in TX Panhandle on Tuesday!!

This day had alot of promise in the TX PH with upper level flow finally kicking out into the plains with a trof coming in with descent moisture streaming into the PH with moderate instability in the area with a wave progged to move in during the late afternoon hours. We headed to Dalhart, TX for our intial target where we ate lunch at decided to sit there for awhile thinking that was a good area. We decided to headed a bit northwest west to Clayton, NM where we could get a better view out to the west where we thought CI would occur with the wave coming in. On our way there we noticed some TCU in the clearing to our southeast near Channing, TX. A few minutes later echoes started showing up on radar and it was going up fast. We decided to bust south to it not knowing what it would do but it was in a good environment for development. We caught up to east east of Channing and pulled off the road past some of the Vortex 2 crew to watch it.



It was developing into a very nice supercell rather fast right in front of us and had good inflow into it most of the time. It was sucking up alot of scud with a nice RFD to our west and soon began to develop a wall cloud with numerous areas of interest.



It really started to get its act together as it started raining but soon had rain falling into its updraft so we headed east to give it time. About 3 minutes after leaving this location some people spotted a tornado back to our west as we were driving east we spotted a tornado coming down. Only a few got pictures of it as it was brief but was tornado number one. After this is when all the hordes of chasers. There were so many chasers between Vortex 2, locals, the Discovery Channel idiots, tour groups, and others out.

We ended up southwest west of Dumas, TX and pulled over to continue to watch its development. At this point it never screamed tornado and never had the classic clear slot RFD occlusion. Most of the time it looked shelfish as it looked like a HP mess for awhile with it raining into the mesocyclone.



After this we headed through Dumas and then east. This took quite awhile with so many people out and having to go through a town. As we got onto the road out of town we spotted a small tornado back to our WSW. There were reports of a large tornado in Dumas but we didnt see it and dont believe it considering the one we saw was small and brief and just south of town. We continued east with other chasers to get a good view of it and went probably about 10 miles east of Dumas and stopped and were rewarded to amazing structure with the supercell, It was amazing in its own.



After about 5 minutes at this location, hail began to fall out east of the storm due to the strong upper level winds. We headed back east for a few miles and went south of the main road where all the chasers were to get a nice view of the storm by ourselves with nobody around.


On Tuesday our target was the TX PH as we left LBB in the morning and headed for

This thing was turning into a HP mess with alot of rain falling into the updraft as time went on which meant you had to be on the northeast side of the meso to see anything. We continued to follow it to Stinnett where it was a mess with alot of chasers.



We decided to leave this storm for a rapidly developing supercell near Romero, TX. We busted back west and finally caught up to it just northeast of Dalhart at right when it became dark and was throwing out cold air....so with crappy lightning we decided to leave and head to the hotel but as we were heading east low level rotation increased quite a bit and inflow picked up so about after 10 seconds of looking north while driving for lightning flashes, someone saw what looked to be a tornado off to our north illuminated by the lightning. It ended up being a pretty good size tornado a mile from us. It was on the ground for around 5 minutes before lifting. It was so great getting my first night tornado I couldn't of been more giddy.

We went east again with a supercell northwest of Stratford showing descent rotation show we went north to check it out but were having data problems but were still able to get radar on Victor's phone. The area of interest was pretty close to us as we were nearing the town. We stopped to get gas where hail was covering the ground and we were actually not allowed in the gas station due to the weather im guessing.



The storm slowly moved south and we were just south of town when the storm was just east of town when someone spotted a tornado thanks to the lightning behind us. We got out and sure enough a large tornado was on the ground with inflow winds probably around 40mph! That was the 4th tornado of the day! It was my best chase day and was so much fun.

Write up for the next day in OK coming soon!


Matt