Lets see what happens, maybe some big HP's??

We left Wichita Falls about 45 mins ago and are currently heading south to I-20 to decide if we want to go west or south.

Thanks to a million storms yesterday and overnight, there is alot of rain cooled air across the area with the front pretty far south with tons of fog currently across southwest TX. the shear is there later for supercells and a few tornadoes but question remains if we can destabilize the atmosphere and get the instability we need. Will probably end up somewhere down near I-10 later this afternoon.

There will be storms just a matter of iff we get supercells. If so, they will be big, wet and scary looking. monster HP's probably. lots of standing water everywhere down here. Would think the dirt roads are complete mud so will probably be staying off those today.

Is some dry air aloft in the area looking at a WV image.



next few days look ok and then next week is showing promise but the models have been struggling if a trof kicks out into the plains or not, lets hope so.


Matt

BIG Monday on tap for the plains!

Well tomorrow is looking like possibly the best looking setup of the year with every chaser, there mom and dog in KS and OK tomorrow afternoon. I unfortunately will not be able to chase this do to school and work but leave friday for 10 days of chasing hopefully with no down days!! Will probably be doing a blog over the next few days on the long range forecast for the trip. The new 0z NAM has come in a bit different for further north by keeping the warm front further south as it seems a cold wedge as the surface is preventing its movement. It also looks like the surface low is a tad weaker on this run.

s/w at 0z tomorrow evening



The player for this setup is the s/w trof currently over southern nevada looking at a WV loop...http://weather.cod.edu/loops/US-WV24.loop.html....This shortwave will head over the four corners region then move ENE which will aid in CI in the danger zone monday afternoon and evening

As this wave moves out, surface frontogenesis will begin to increase in the mid afternoon in the area of the best thermal/moist advection northeast of the surface low where moisture will start to pool as CAPE should begin to increase and it wont take much to get storms going as the s/w will be moving into the area. I think this area in northwest KS is another target for supercells and tornadoes but not the obvious play so im sure some chasers will be playing this area but most should be in southern KS or down into OK which the new NAM favors.



There will be ongoing convection in parts of OK/KS in the morning tomorrow associated with the strong LLJ going up and over the front overnight and into the morning. It will be interesting to see how this plays out during the day tomorrow and if an OFB can be put out for later on. As the day goes on the warm front will be lifting north (or atleast trying to). The new NAM held it further south making the warm sector smaller. Would like to see it lift north allowing for a bigger warm sector so storms dont run away from the instability. the new NAM is pooling dew points at 70 on the dryline in OK which I dont know if I believe they will get that high but does look possible as dew points are in the upper 40's/low 50's in OK where they have went up between 5-10 degrees since early this afternoon and will be on the increase.



This setup has gotten tones of hype the last several days being compared to historic tornado days from the past. No matter how tomorrow plays out, the hype IMO is deserved given the setup/parameters its cranking out and I wont be shocked at all if SPC ends up going high risk. CAPE values around 3000 j/kg with 0-1 SRH at 300. THE OKC sounding off the 12z NAM earlier today was just stupid. Given the insane parameters and also the nice LCL heights, strong to violent tornadoes are a good possibility tomorrow in the moderate risk area.

CAPE as 0z



0-1 SRH



The dynamics for tomorrow are just insane with 500mb flow between 70-90kts with 700mb winds at or above 50kts. This is going to create pretty fast storm motion which means there are going to be hundreds of chasers trying to keep up with fast moving tornadic supercells which could create a dangerous situation.

Wont pick a target area until the morning given the uncertainties on the front position and ongoing convection but like somewhere in OK along the dryline north of I-40 given the fact that the mid level cooling has increased in model land which would aid in breaking the cap allowing for rubust convection further south along the dryline. hopefully there will be a few nice supercells to spread the chasers out. the shear vectors tomorrow are nearly perpendicular to the dryline which will promote discrete storm mode. Hoping for storms here in northern IL later monday night into tuesday morning so its not a total loss.

Overall it is looking like a big day tomorrow and I only with I was out there.


Matt

Thinking cap on...what went wrong??

Well the major tornado outbreak did not happen and now comes the fun part of trying to figure out what happened to not allow for tornadoes to come out of the many supercells that were in AR this evening. I was fully expecting AR to go completely insane with full out supercells with big tornadoes in them all evening. That was not the case. There is a discussion going on ST and this is what my thoughts were:

"Could it have been due to a warm layer aloft? The lapse rates were just not that great. There was quite of bit of supercells at the onset with a good number of left movers that were interacting with other storms.

As Skip said, the storms were moving with the mean wind most of the time but when that storm west of Wynne, AR made a right turn the LL rotation substantially increased with a good meso from 3,000ft to 13,000ft and then started putting down tornadoes.

The storm further south looked pretty good on radar but just could never get that LL rotation even when the LLJ picked up later in the evening. And with pertains to both storms, I would of thought the further north storm would of had problems with inflow and rotation due to the southern storm but it backwards with the northern storm being the dominate one.

Im pretty shocked with the lack of tornado reports with this setup given the storms were able to stay discrete. Would of been nice to have V2 on these storms to see what the near storm environments were like"

Too add to that, looking at radar tonight it just looked like the storms were more LP in nature where they actually looked more wet and HPish on the cameras that were out there this afternoon/evening.

It was just a weird evening watching things unfold. But that is what makes this fun and interesting and why its my love and passion. To learn from each event!


Matt

Go west young man....after work.

Well after a nice supercell today along the KS/NE border with a thousand chasers and there mom on....they should be alittle bit more spread out tomorrow given the wider area at risk for severe weather tomorrow as the trough continues its way east along with the amazing dynamics of this system. I have never seen this strong a jet in the month of april. 100kts at 500mb is just stupid.




Tomorrow has possibilities but with most setups around here there are the problems that could hamper the possibility of tornadic supercells on the cold front tomorrow in IA/MO and possibly IL. But there are also some good things like the shear storms are going to have to work with. I am kind of concerned with the moisture and low to mid 60 dew points are going to get up here in time, we shall see.

1. Ongoing convection as usual will have to be watched in the morning tomorrow and if it will move out of the area with enough time to get destabilization to occur. If there is alot of clouds then were not going to get enough instability for thunderstorms later on. The one plus about this is that there is the possibility of an OFB being left out.

2. Clearing- Tomorrow could be one of those days where the area is socked in clouds but one small area could see some sun for a few hours and that will be it, going to have to watch vis sat alot tomorrow to see what is going on.

3. Storm motions- These bad boys are going to be hauling tomorrow between 40-50kts which means staying on them is going to be very tough. going to have to sit east of where CI takes place and let them come to you if you want to have a shot.

4. Mode- There is quite a bit of forcing tomorrow and the question if and how long storms can remain discrete. If they can remain discrete they will go supercellular given the shear they are going to have to work with but if there is alot of forcing its going to be a honkin squall line with possible embedded supercells.

Here is an image taken off the 21z SREF showing tornado ingredients which combines different parameters which are needed for tornadoes.



The new SPC day 1 outlook just came out and showing the best risk west of the Miss. river in IA/MO which I had suspected. Its going to be interesting to see if things are linear or discrete. Everything should form into a line and move into northern IL before weakening overnight.



I will not be able to chase until after work at 4 or 4 30pm so im hoping the CF is a bit faster and the storms get here sooner then expected but Im not so confident in that happening.

If I was able to chase with more time and get to a target Id head to IA be somewhere in the Oskaloosa to Iowa City to Fairfield triangle.


Matt

easy choice for a title......HIGH RISK!!

Well SPC has pulled out the high risk with the 6z outlook (pretty large area for the first outlook of the day). For the past week it seems weather geeks and forecasters have been talking about the potential for severe weather outbreak in the south and now were in the morning of getting ready for a possible historic tornado outbreak in parts of AR/TN/LA/MS/AL.



Today was somewhat of a bust givn the 15% hatched tornado probs put out but tomorrow has alot higher confidence but there still are a few things that could play havoc on this setup that I have been looking at tonight.

1. The current convection in eastern TX working its way eastward could stabilize the warm sector and not allow for good enough heating later in the day limiting the risk of potential long track, violent tornadoes.

2. The track of the surface low and how quickly it deepens. A further north and west track would lessen the amount of forcing in the warm sector early on which would mean not as much junk convection to hamper heating.

3. The mid level dry punch, I think this is going to be the key player on what plays out tomorrow. If this can happen during the day tomorrow and allow surface temps to really warm up, then some high amounts of instability coupled with insane amounts of shear (both bulk shear and low level shear) is a deadly combination for cyclic supercells tomorrow in the warm sector producing alot of tornadoes, potentially violent ones at that.

forecast offices have been comparing past outbreaks in the late 90's to this setup and writing amazing AFD's that were just through the roof good on the potential this thing had and letting people know ahead of time. If things play out right tomorrow (or wrong for that matter) then we could be looking at a major tornado outbreak across the south.

here is the text from the new day 1 from SPC....I will probably be doing updated throughout the day with radar images and such as Im geeking out watching this potential tornado outbreak unfold.


...LOWER MS VALLEY...MID-SOUTH AND TN VALLEY REGIONS...
TSTMS SHOULD BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AROUND BEGINNING OF
PERIOD OVER E TX...LA AND ARKLATEX REGION. FOREGOING AIR MASS --
ALREADY MOISTENED/DESTABILIZED FAVORABLY BY PRIOR/OVERNIGHT THETAE
ADVECTION...WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE AMIDST SFC DIABATIC HEATING.
AMOUNT OF HEATING IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION BECAUSE OF POTENTIAL FOR
CLOUD/ANVIL DEBRIS SPREADING DOWNSTREAM IN MID-UPPER LEVELS FROM
EARLY CONVECTION...PERHAPS INCLUDING TEMPORAL EXTENSION OF ACTIVITY
NOW OVER S TX. STILL...AWAY FROM EXISTING CONVECTION...EVERY
REASONABLE SCENARIO INDICATES THAT MLCINH GENERALLY WILL WEAKEN WITH
NWD EXTENT FROM GULF COAST...SUPPORTING EARLY AND RAPID DEVELOPMENT
AND INTENSIFICATION OF TSTMS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON...AND SUSTAINED THREAT SHIFTING EWD AND NEWD ACROSS
OUTLOOK AREA INTO EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.

INTENSE VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL SPREAD ACROSS BROAD WARM/MOIST
SECTOR TODAY...MUCH OF WHICH ALREADY IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF
LA...MS AND COASTAL AL. THIS AIR MASS WILL SPREAD INLAND TOWARD TN
VALLEY AS CONVECTION/PRECIP NOW OVER TN/AL/GA SHIFTS NEWD. SFC DEW
POINTS WILL BE 70S INVOF GULF COAST...TRANSITIONING TO UPPER 60S AS
FAR N AS TN AND LOW-MID 60S TO OH VALLEY. WEAKENING LAPSE RATES
ALOFT AND BUOYANCY WITH NWD EXTENT...FROM TN VALLEY TO OH VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES...RENDER PROGRESSIVELY MORE CONDITIONAL NATURE TO SVR
THREAT...THOUGH KINEMATIC PROFILES WILL BECOME FAVORABLE OVER VERY
LARGE AREA S OF GREAT LAKES BY EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE EPISODES AND STORM MODES ARE EXPECTED IN THIS
SITUATION...AGGREGATE OF WHICH SHOULD YIELD DENSE CONCENTRATION OF
SVR EVENTS BY END OF PERIOD ACROSS MDT/HIGH CATEGORICAL RISK AREAS.
THOUGH DISCRETE/CYCLIC TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE MOST POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS THREAT...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGH RISK AREA...CLUSTERED AND
QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH EMBEDDED BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS
AND SUPERCELLS ALSO APPEAR PROBABLE. STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WINDS
AND RELATED FAST STORM MOTIONS PORTEND LONG TRACKS FOR SUPERCELLS
AND FOR SOME OF THEIR TORNADOES...AS WELL AS FOR SWATHS OF DAMAGING
WIND WITH ANY BOW/LEWP FEATURES. THIS SUPPORTS RATHER ROBUST
PROBABILITIES FOR ALL SEVERE MODES.

PARAMETER SPACES IN FCST SOUNDINGS OVER HIGH RISK AREA -- SHIFTING
NEWD FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON -- INCLUDE 50-60 KT LLJ
SUPPORTING VERY LARGE HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 AND 0-1 KM SRH 300-600
J/KG. ALSO EXPECT 50-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES BENEATH
110-140 KT 250 MB JET MAX AND 60-90 KT 500 MB WINDS...POTENTIALLY
JUXTAPOSED WITH MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG.

getting my weather swerve on!

Well tornado season really got cranking this afternoon and evening in CO to KS down into the TX PH where 30 tornadoes have been reported so far and that number should continue to go up. Today was only the start of it and tomorrow and saturday look to be just as big if not bigger.

I cant chase tomorrow but if I was I would target Falls City, NE where the triple point/warm front is going to setup. The new NAM is showing H5 winds greater then 50kts out of the southwest nosing up into the area by late afternoon into the evening with southerly 850's and backed sfc winds up against the WF with nice convergence.

Storms will be ongoing in the morning but should clear out by the afternoon as the dry intrusion moves into the area and allows for destabilization to occur with CAPE values approaching 2500 j/kg by 0z with dew points nearing the mid 60s into the triple point and bumping up against the warm front with a nice theata-e axis.

Look for storms to fire during the afternoon hours between 20-22z with all modes of severe weather possible with any supercells that do form. could see some pretty large hail given the steep lapse rates. tornadoes will also be a pretty sizeable threat given the amount of shear that will be in place


Going to be an active day even though I wont be out and then we get to saturday....



Matt

What are the odds?? I will have to chase new orleans while I'm there haha

Im leaving to head down to New Orleans thursday morning and was just looking at the new 0z run of the GFS and started laughing when looking at the forecast for saturday afternoon down there and the severe weather potential it was showing. would be a nice consolation prize for not being able to chase the possible good setup the day before most likely in TX.

The system that will aid in the severe weather the day before saturday will continue moving eastward with an ULL centered western AR during the afternoon on saturday if this were the perfect prog, which its not, would have southwesterly flow near 40kts.



we also have nice low level winds at 850mb out of the SSW near 30-35kts pumping in some good moisture off the gulf with 850mb Td's nearing 15.



The moisture is for sure there with dew points in the mid 60's with backed surface winds up into the surface low further north across MO/AR.



here is a image showing the nice area of instability feeding up into the sfc low with CAPE values nearing 1500 j/kg.



and lastly, here is a forecast sounding for 18z on saturday showing the nice turning with height and descent hodograph.



the last time I believe new orleans was hit by a tornado was 2/12/07, which is when we had a pretty good snowstorm beginning that day.


Matt