BIG Monday on tap for the plains!

Well tomorrow is looking like possibly the best looking setup of the year with every chaser, there mom and dog in KS and OK tomorrow afternoon. I unfortunately will not be able to chase this do to school and work but leave friday for 10 days of chasing hopefully with no down days!! Will probably be doing a blog over the next few days on the long range forecast for the trip. The new 0z NAM has come in a bit different for further north by keeping the warm front further south as it seems a cold wedge as the surface is preventing its movement. It also looks like the surface low is a tad weaker on this run.

s/w at 0z tomorrow evening



The player for this setup is the s/w trof currently over southern nevada looking at a WV loop...http://weather.cod.edu/loops/US-WV24.loop.html....This shortwave will head over the four corners region then move ENE which will aid in CI in the danger zone monday afternoon and evening

As this wave moves out, surface frontogenesis will begin to increase in the mid afternoon in the area of the best thermal/moist advection northeast of the surface low where moisture will start to pool as CAPE should begin to increase and it wont take much to get storms going as the s/w will be moving into the area. I think this area in northwest KS is another target for supercells and tornadoes but not the obvious play so im sure some chasers will be playing this area but most should be in southern KS or down into OK which the new NAM favors.



There will be ongoing convection in parts of OK/KS in the morning tomorrow associated with the strong LLJ going up and over the front overnight and into the morning. It will be interesting to see how this plays out during the day tomorrow and if an OFB can be put out for later on. As the day goes on the warm front will be lifting north (or atleast trying to). The new NAM held it further south making the warm sector smaller. Would like to see it lift north allowing for a bigger warm sector so storms dont run away from the instability. the new NAM is pooling dew points at 70 on the dryline in OK which I dont know if I believe they will get that high but does look possible as dew points are in the upper 40's/low 50's in OK where they have went up between 5-10 degrees since early this afternoon and will be on the increase.



This setup has gotten tones of hype the last several days being compared to historic tornado days from the past. No matter how tomorrow plays out, the hype IMO is deserved given the setup/parameters its cranking out and I wont be shocked at all if SPC ends up going high risk. CAPE values around 3000 j/kg with 0-1 SRH at 300. THE OKC sounding off the 12z NAM earlier today was just stupid. Given the insane parameters and also the nice LCL heights, strong to violent tornadoes are a good possibility tomorrow in the moderate risk area.

CAPE as 0z



0-1 SRH



The dynamics for tomorrow are just insane with 500mb flow between 70-90kts with 700mb winds at or above 50kts. This is going to create pretty fast storm motion which means there are going to be hundreds of chasers trying to keep up with fast moving tornadic supercells which could create a dangerous situation.

Wont pick a target area until the morning given the uncertainties on the front position and ongoing convection but like somewhere in OK along the dryline north of I-40 given the fact that the mid level cooling has increased in model land which would aid in breaking the cap allowing for rubust convection further south along the dryline. hopefully there will be a few nice supercells to spread the chasers out. the shear vectors tomorrow are nearly perpendicular to the dryline which will promote discrete storm mode. Hoping for storms here in northern IL later monday night into tuesday morning so its not a total loss.

Overall it is looking like a big day tomorrow and I only with I was out there.


Matt