Finally! severe weather around here!

With a strong CF on its way east along a very impressive mid level speed max and better moisture on its way north, it should set the stage for a pretty nice squall line from the IA/IL border across southern WI, northern IL, northern IA and lower MI.

SPC has outlined that area with 15% hail and wind probs as well as 2% tornado probs. really dont think a tornado is possible today unless more CAPE can be realized and get a get a possible discrete storm early on before things go linear.

with sfc temps heating to near 80 today and a shortwave trof progged to move into the area later this afternoon, scatter thunderstorms should break out for eastern IA to southwest WI by late afternoon in a rather weak instability enviroment with CAPE values near 1000, but 0-6 shear values between 40-60kts, this line should back some punch with very impressive wind fields. wouldnt be hard to get a 60mph gust down to the sfc.

would probably bank on severe thunderstorm watch by later this afternoon given the chance for some pretty impressive wind gusts associated with the line of storms.

supercells in MT??

well there was just a new MD issued for eastern MT with supercells possible later this afternoon with possibly some tornadoes in the strongly sheared environment.

The MD highlighted nice UVV in the area with a upper level low retrograding back northwest with lapse rates and CAPE values on the rise in the area and bulk shear near 40kts. I would probably target somewhere around miles city. storm motion doesnt look to bad and with the amount of shear a storm has to work with it should quickly go severe and have the potential to produce a tornado.