huge storm system in the early stages dumping a ton of snow in the WY/CO area this evening and should continue into thursday with some areas possibly picking up 2-3 feet of snow!! this is being cause by a very large trof carved out over the western US. something pretty rare for this time of the year with numbers of -4.5 standard deviations. the sfc low then begins to head northeast through the dakotas into MN and really intensify along the way. not fast enough to throw out bombogenesis but impressive to say the least and could drop to near 976 once it passes over lake superior into canada.
as for the warm side of the storm, and some severe weather will be the main threat with this and alot of gulf moisture will work its way north and with a strong CF, people are going to get some heavy rain the mississippi valley down through the southern plains. right now AR is the QPF bullseye with possibly 6 inches of rain in some spots. it wont be as bad here but we could see possibly 1-2 inches and some thunder thursday night into friday morning before the CF passes through.
We could of been looking at a huge severe weather/tornado outbreak if we had some dam instability but that is not going to happen. lapse rates are going to suck. wind fields are very impressive in the plains and midwest and with a tad amount of instability, damaging winds in any thunderstorm/squall line would be the main threat. with near 60kts at 850mb, wouldnt take much here to mix down a severe gust in a thunderstorm late thursday night. TX/OK look to be the area for tomorrow and then all up and down the CF thursday from IL to LA.
the interesthing thing tonight on the 0z GFS run is how the first system comes out a bit weaker and a good amount of energy gets left behind and rounds the base of the trof and sits in TX/OK at 90 hours. it then organizes itself into a nice area of low pressure and runs northeast west of the apps into OH. the models have been trying to develop a second wave for days but this is by far the most aggressive run yet with it. It would be pretty hard to get snow but not impossible and with a stronger wave and better UVV, it could create its own cold air and maybe produce some snow. interesting to see how everything plays out.
Matt
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
snow on sunday??
yes it is possible, snow in mid october. It happened back in 2006 and we get 0.3" and I believe it was one of the earliest if not the earliest measurable snowfalls to chicagoland. and it looks like it could repeat itself sunday night if things work out as planned.
a very cold air mass will works it way down across the northern plains starting at the end of the week and the midwest feeling the brunt of it this weekend. If a wave and run along the leading edge of the cold air and tap the moisture laddened atmosphere to the south then we could possibly see the first flakes off the winter, or should i say fall, around here. 850mb temps look to be hovering around -5 to -8 and that would support snow. would have to worry about a warm layer closer to the sfc but sleet/freezing rain will not happen with the lower levels being so warm. with it being so cold aloft it would either be rain and/or snow. usually in the heart of winter you can use the 0 degrees at 850mb as a rain/snow line but not this early in the season. the last few runs of the GFS have supported snow around here sunday night into monday morning.
the surface temperatures are still in the 50's if I had to guess so anything that falls would have alot of trouble sticking but if we got a period of moderate to heavy snow then I could see it sticking on grassy surfaces. its still 5-6 days away and the models could completely change and warm us up or push the system further south and make us even colder, but there is that chance right now and Im going to take full advantage of hyping up the first snowfall, and because its the october 6th!!!!
so I myself and really hoping for snow this weekend and will be looking at every model and every run until the event/day gets here. I am back in winter mode!!
Matt
a very cold air mass will works it way down across the northern plains starting at the end of the week and the midwest feeling the brunt of it this weekend. If a wave and run along the leading edge of the cold air and tap the moisture laddened atmosphere to the south then we could possibly see the first flakes off the winter, or should i say fall, around here. 850mb temps look to be hovering around -5 to -8 and that would support snow. would have to worry about a warm layer closer to the sfc but sleet/freezing rain will not happen with the lower levels being so warm. with it being so cold aloft it would either be rain and/or snow. usually in the heart of winter you can use the 0 degrees at 850mb as a rain/snow line but not this early in the season. the last few runs of the GFS have supported snow around here sunday night into monday morning.
the surface temperatures are still in the 50's if I had to guess so anything that falls would have alot of trouble sticking but if we got a period of moderate to heavy snow then I could see it sticking on grassy surfaces. its still 5-6 days away and the models could completely change and warm us up or push the system further south and make us even colder, but there is that chance right now and Im going to take full advantage of hyping up the first snowfall, and because its the october 6th!!!!
so I myself and really hoping for snow this weekend and will be looking at every model and every run until the event/day gets here. I am back in winter mode!!
Matt
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