The new 12z WRF is showing a nice signal for the TX PH but I really dont like the weak upper level winds as well as what the LCL's will be in that area. Its going to take quite a bit of convergence along the dryline to get something to go. The H7 temps are progged to be quite high. I wouldn't rule out that area for an isolated storm later this evening but I like the northeast CO play alot more.
Like the Brush to Yuma area for supercells later this afternoon. dew points are already in the low 50's in nw KS/ne KS/nw NE per the 16z obs. The shear is amazing in the area with really nice low level hodographs. will be interesting to see if a denver cyclone can develop later this afternoon.
We are leaving Garden City now.
Friday, May 21, 2010
Thursday, May 20, 2010
4 tornadoes in TX Panhandle on Tuesday!!
This day had alot of promise in the TX PH with upper level flow finally kicking out into the plains with a trof coming in with descent moisture streaming into the PH with moderate instability in the area with a wave progged to move in during the late afternoon hours. We headed to Dalhart, TX for our intial target where we ate lunch at decided to sit there for awhile thinking that was a good area. We decided to headed a bit northwest west to Clayton, NM where we could get a better view out to the west where we thought CI would occur with the wave coming in. On our way there we noticed some TCU in the clearing to our southeast near Channing, TX. A few minutes later echoes started showing up on radar and it was going up fast. We decided to bust south to it not knowing what it would do but it was in a good environment for development. We caught up to east east of Channing and pulled off the road past some of the Vortex 2 crew to watch it.
It was developing into a very nice supercell rather fast right in front of us and had good inflow into it most of the time. It was sucking up alot of scud with a nice RFD to our west and soon began to develop a wall cloud with numerous areas of interest.
It really started to get its act together as it started raining but soon had rain falling into its updraft so we headed east to give it time. About 3 minutes after leaving this location some people spotted a tornado back to our west as we were driving east we spotted a tornado coming down. Only a few got pictures of it as it was brief but was tornado number one. After this is when all the hordes of chasers. There were so many chasers between Vortex 2, locals, the Discovery Channel idiots, tour groups, and others out.
We ended up southwest west of Dumas, TX and pulled over to continue to watch its development. At this point it never screamed tornado and never had the classic clear slot RFD occlusion. Most of the time it looked shelfish as it looked like a HP mess for awhile with it raining into the mesocyclone.
After this we headed through Dumas and then east. This took quite awhile with so many people out and having to go through a town. As we got onto the road out of town we spotted a small tornado back to our WSW. There were reports of a large tornado in Dumas but we didnt see it and dont believe it considering the one we saw was small and brief and just south of town. We continued east with other chasers to get a good view of it and went probably about 10 miles east of Dumas and stopped and were rewarded to amazing structure with the supercell, It was amazing in its own.
After about 5 minutes at this location, hail began to fall out east of the storm due to the strong upper level winds. We headed back east for a few miles and went south of the main road where all the chasers were to get a nice view of the storm by ourselves with nobody around.
On Tuesday our target was the TX PH as we left LBB in the morning and headed for
This thing was turning into a HP mess with alot of rain falling into the updraft as time went on which meant you had to be on the northeast side of the meso to see anything. We continued to follow it to Stinnett where it was a mess with alot of chasers.
We decided to leave this storm for a rapidly developing supercell near Romero, TX. We busted back west and finally caught up to it just northeast of Dalhart at right when it became dark and was throwing out cold air....so with crappy lightning we decided to leave and head to the hotel but as we were heading east low level rotation increased quite a bit and inflow picked up so about after 10 seconds of looking north while driving for lightning flashes, someone saw what looked to be a tornado off to our north illuminated by the lightning. It ended up being a pretty good size tornado a mile from us. It was on the ground for around 5 minutes before lifting. It was so great getting my first night tornado I couldn't of been more giddy.
We went east again with a supercell northwest of Stratford showing descent rotation show we went north to check it out but were having data problems but were still able to get radar on Victor's phone. The area of interest was pretty close to us as we were nearing the town. We stopped to get gas where hail was covering the ground and we were actually not allowed in the gas station due to the weather im guessing.
The storm slowly moved south and we were just south of town when the storm was just east of town when someone spotted a tornado thanks to the lightning behind us. We got out and sure enough a large tornado was on the ground with inflow winds probably around 40mph! That was the 4th tornado of the day! It was my best chase day and was so much fun.
Write up for the next day in OK coming soon!
Matt
It was developing into a very nice supercell rather fast right in front of us and had good inflow into it most of the time. It was sucking up alot of scud with a nice RFD to our west and soon began to develop a wall cloud with numerous areas of interest.
It really started to get its act together as it started raining but soon had rain falling into its updraft so we headed east to give it time. About 3 minutes after leaving this location some people spotted a tornado back to our west as we were driving east we spotted a tornado coming down. Only a few got pictures of it as it was brief but was tornado number one. After this is when all the hordes of chasers. There were so many chasers between Vortex 2, locals, the Discovery Channel idiots, tour groups, and others out.
We ended up southwest west of Dumas, TX and pulled over to continue to watch its development. At this point it never screamed tornado and never had the classic clear slot RFD occlusion. Most of the time it looked shelfish as it looked like a HP mess for awhile with it raining into the mesocyclone.
After this we headed through Dumas and then east. This took quite awhile with so many people out and having to go through a town. As we got onto the road out of town we spotted a small tornado back to our WSW. There were reports of a large tornado in Dumas but we didnt see it and dont believe it considering the one we saw was small and brief and just south of town. We continued east with other chasers to get a good view of it and went probably about 10 miles east of Dumas and stopped and were rewarded to amazing structure with the supercell, It was amazing in its own.
After about 5 minutes at this location, hail began to fall out east of the storm due to the strong upper level winds. We headed back east for a few miles and went south of the main road where all the chasers were to get a nice view of the storm by ourselves with nobody around.
On Tuesday our target was the TX PH as we left LBB in the morning and headed for
This thing was turning into a HP mess with alot of rain falling into the updraft as time went on which meant you had to be on the northeast side of the meso to see anything. We continued to follow it to Stinnett where it was a mess with alot of chasers.
We decided to leave this storm for a rapidly developing supercell near Romero, TX. We busted back west and finally caught up to it just northeast of Dalhart at right when it became dark and was throwing out cold air....so with crappy lightning we decided to leave and head to the hotel but as we were heading east low level rotation increased quite a bit and inflow picked up so about after 10 seconds of looking north while driving for lightning flashes, someone saw what looked to be a tornado off to our north illuminated by the lightning. It ended up being a pretty good size tornado a mile from us. It was on the ground for around 5 minutes before lifting. It was so great getting my first night tornado I couldn't of been more giddy.
We went east again with a supercell northwest of Stratford showing descent rotation show we went north to check it out but were having data problems but were still able to get radar on Victor's phone. The area of interest was pretty close to us as we were nearing the town. We stopped to get gas where hail was covering the ground and we were actually not allowed in the gas station due to the weather im guessing.
The storm slowly moved south and we were just south of town when the storm was just east of town when someone spotted a tornado thanks to the lightning behind us. We got out and sure enough a large tornado was on the ground with inflow winds probably around 40mph! That was the 4th tornado of the day! It was my best chase day and was so much fun.
Write up for the next day in OK coming soon!
Matt
Monday, May 17, 2010
day by day...by day...finally we have better UL support
The last few days we have been playing around with ok storms in southeast NM and southwest TX. Yesterday we were around I-10 and fort stockon to sanderson killing storms that were already crappy. Today was the best day so far as we caught a few nice storms near Carlsbad, NM. They were big hailers which we stayed out of but did give us some descent structure to enjoy and well as some good lightning, was nice to be actually chasing again.
The problem with each day has been the overnight stupid convection that has went through the area and scouring out everything and making it harder to recover the next day. this past saturday looked great the day before but due to an MCS it sucked. As with the setup for tomorrow, that is going to be the problem once again. We finally have a nice trof coming into the plains with good mid level winds and a dryline at the surface but the new NAM is breaking out alot of precip during the morning and early afternoon from southern CO to eastern NM/TX PH. This cutting down on the amount of destabilization to occur and moisture return.
500mb flow tomorrow evening
Weds looks like a good day in OK and possibly northern TX around the childress to wichita falls area but what happens tomorrow night will have an effect on the next day. Thursday looks like a travel day further north with more chasing once again friday and saturday before heading home on sunday.
dew points weds evening
The problem with each day has been the overnight stupid convection that has went through the area and scouring out everything and making it harder to recover the next day. this past saturday looked great the day before but due to an MCS it sucked. As with the setup for tomorrow, that is going to be the problem once again. We finally have a nice trof coming into the plains with good mid level winds and a dryline at the surface but the new NAM is breaking out alot of precip during the morning and early afternoon from southern CO to eastern NM/TX PH. This cutting down on the amount of destabilization to occur and moisture return.
500mb flow tomorrow evening
Weds looks like a good day in OK and possibly northern TX around the childress to wichita falls area but what happens tomorrow night will have an effect on the next day. Thursday looks like a travel day further north with more chasing once again friday and saturday before heading home on sunday.
dew points weds evening
Saturday, May 15, 2010
Lets see what happens, maybe some big HP's??
We left Wichita Falls about 45 mins ago and are currently heading south to I-20 to decide if we want to go west or south.
Thanks to a million storms yesterday and overnight, there is alot of rain cooled air across the area with the front pretty far south with tons of fog currently across southwest TX. the shear is there later for supercells and a few tornadoes but question remains if we can destabilize the atmosphere and get the instability we need. Will probably end up somewhere down near I-10 later this afternoon.
There will be storms just a matter of iff we get supercells. If so, they will be big, wet and scary looking. monster HP's probably. lots of standing water everywhere down here. Would think the dirt roads are complete mud so will probably be staying off those today.
Is some dry air aloft in the area looking at a WV image.
next few days look ok and then next week is showing promise but the models have been struggling if a trof kicks out into the plains or not, lets hope so.
Matt
Thanks to a million storms yesterday and overnight, there is alot of rain cooled air across the area with the front pretty far south with tons of fog currently across southwest TX. the shear is there later for supercells and a few tornadoes but question remains if we can destabilize the atmosphere and get the instability we need. Will probably end up somewhere down near I-10 later this afternoon.
There will be storms just a matter of iff we get supercells. If so, they will be big, wet and scary looking. monster HP's probably. lots of standing water everywhere down here. Would think the dirt roads are complete mud so will probably be staying off those today.
Is some dry air aloft in the area looking at a WV image.
next few days look ok and then next week is showing promise but the models have been struggling if a trof kicks out into the plains or not, lets hope so.
Matt
Sunday, May 9, 2010
BIG Monday on tap for the plains!
Well tomorrow is looking like possibly the best looking setup of the year with every chaser, there mom and dog in KS and OK tomorrow afternoon. I unfortunately will not be able to chase this do to school and work but leave friday for 10 days of chasing hopefully with no down days!! Will probably be doing a blog over the next few days on the long range forecast for the trip. The new 0z NAM has come in a bit different for further north by keeping the warm front further south as it seems a cold wedge as the surface is preventing its movement. It also looks like the surface low is a tad weaker on this run.
s/w at 0z tomorrow evening
The player for this setup is the s/w trof currently over southern nevada looking at a WV loop...http://weather.cod.edu/loops/US-WV24.loop.html....This shortwave will head over the four corners region then move ENE which will aid in CI in the danger zone monday afternoon and evening
As this wave moves out, surface frontogenesis will begin to increase in the mid afternoon in the area of the best thermal/moist advection northeast of the surface low where moisture will start to pool as CAPE should begin to increase and it wont take much to get storms going as the s/w will be moving into the area. I think this area in northwest KS is another target for supercells and tornadoes but not the obvious play so im sure some chasers will be playing this area but most should be in southern KS or down into OK which the new NAM favors.
There will be ongoing convection in parts of OK/KS in the morning tomorrow associated with the strong LLJ going up and over the front overnight and into the morning. It will be interesting to see how this plays out during the day tomorrow and if an OFB can be put out for later on. As the day goes on the warm front will be lifting north (or atleast trying to). The new NAM held it further south making the warm sector smaller. Would like to see it lift north allowing for a bigger warm sector so storms dont run away from the instability. the new NAM is pooling dew points at 70 on the dryline in OK which I dont know if I believe they will get that high but does look possible as dew points are in the upper 40's/low 50's in OK where they have went up between 5-10 degrees since early this afternoon and will be on the increase.
This setup has gotten tones of hype the last several days being compared to historic tornado days from the past. No matter how tomorrow plays out, the hype IMO is deserved given the setup/parameters its cranking out and I wont be shocked at all if SPC ends up going high risk. CAPE values around 3000 j/kg with 0-1 SRH at 300. THE OKC sounding off the 12z NAM earlier today was just stupid. Given the insane parameters and also the nice LCL heights, strong to violent tornadoes are a good possibility tomorrow in the moderate risk area.
CAPE as 0z
0-1 SRH
The dynamics for tomorrow are just insane with 500mb flow between 70-90kts with 700mb winds at or above 50kts. This is going to create pretty fast storm motion which means there are going to be hundreds of chasers trying to keep up with fast moving tornadic supercells which could create a dangerous situation.
Wont pick a target area until the morning given the uncertainties on the front position and ongoing convection but like somewhere in OK along the dryline north of I-40 given the fact that the mid level cooling has increased in model land which would aid in breaking the cap allowing for rubust convection further south along the dryline. hopefully there will be a few nice supercells to spread the chasers out. the shear vectors tomorrow are nearly perpendicular to the dryline which will promote discrete storm mode. Hoping for storms here in northern IL later monday night into tuesday morning so its not a total loss.
Overall it is looking like a big day tomorrow and I only with I was out there.
Matt
s/w at 0z tomorrow evening
The player for this setup is the s/w trof currently over southern nevada looking at a WV loop...http://weather.cod.edu/loops/US-WV24.loop.html....This shortwave will head over the four corners region then move ENE which will aid in CI in the danger zone monday afternoon and evening
As this wave moves out, surface frontogenesis will begin to increase in the mid afternoon in the area of the best thermal/moist advection northeast of the surface low where moisture will start to pool as CAPE should begin to increase and it wont take much to get storms going as the s/w will be moving into the area. I think this area in northwest KS is another target for supercells and tornadoes but not the obvious play so im sure some chasers will be playing this area but most should be in southern KS or down into OK which the new NAM favors.
There will be ongoing convection in parts of OK/KS in the morning tomorrow associated with the strong LLJ going up and over the front overnight and into the morning. It will be interesting to see how this plays out during the day tomorrow and if an OFB can be put out for later on. As the day goes on the warm front will be lifting north (or atleast trying to). The new NAM held it further south making the warm sector smaller. Would like to see it lift north allowing for a bigger warm sector so storms dont run away from the instability. the new NAM is pooling dew points at 70 on the dryline in OK which I dont know if I believe they will get that high but does look possible as dew points are in the upper 40's/low 50's in OK where they have went up between 5-10 degrees since early this afternoon and will be on the increase.
This setup has gotten tones of hype the last several days being compared to historic tornado days from the past. No matter how tomorrow plays out, the hype IMO is deserved given the setup/parameters its cranking out and I wont be shocked at all if SPC ends up going high risk. CAPE values around 3000 j/kg with 0-1 SRH at 300. THE OKC sounding off the 12z NAM earlier today was just stupid. Given the insane parameters and also the nice LCL heights, strong to violent tornadoes are a good possibility tomorrow in the moderate risk area.
CAPE as 0z
0-1 SRH
The dynamics for tomorrow are just insane with 500mb flow between 70-90kts with 700mb winds at or above 50kts. This is going to create pretty fast storm motion which means there are going to be hundreds of chasers trying to keep up with fast moving tornadic supercells which could create a dangerous situation.
Wont pick a target area until the morning given the uncertainties on the front position and ongoing convection but like somewhere in OK along the dryline north of I-40 given the fact that the mid level cooling has increased in model land which would aid in breaking the cap allowing for rubust convection further south along the dryline. hopefully there will be a few nice supercells to spread the chasers out. the shear vectors tomorrow are nearly perpendicular to the dryline which will promote discrete storm mode. Hoping for storms here in northern IL later monday night into tuesday morning so its not a total loss.
Overall it is looking like a big day tomorrow and I only with I was out there.
Matt
Saturday, May 1, 2010
Thinking cap on...what went wrong??
Well the major tornado outbreak did not happen and now comes the fun part of trying to figure out what happened to not allow for tornadoes to come out of the many supercells that were in AR this evening. I was fully expecting AR to go completely insane with full out supercells with big tornadoes in them all evening. That was not the case. There is a discussion going on ST and this is what my thoughts were:
"Could it have been due to a warm layer aloft? The lapse rates were just not that great. There was quite of bit of supercells at the onset with a good number of left movers that were interacting with other storms.
As Skip said, the storms were moving with the mean wind most of the time but when that storm west of Wynne, AR made a right turn the LL rotation substantially increased with a good meso from 3,000ft to 13,000ft and then started putting down tornadoes.
The storm further south looked pretty good on radar but just could never get that LL rotation even when the LLJ picked up later in the evening. And with pertains to both storms, I would of thought the further north storm would of had problems with inflow and rotation due to the southern storm but it backwards with the northern storm being the dominate one.
Im pretty shocked with the lack of tornado reports with this setup given the storms were able to stay discrete. Would of been nice to have V2 on these storms to see what the near storm environments were like"
Too add to that, looking at radar tonight it just looked like the storms were more LP in nature where they actually looked more wet and HPish on the cameras that were out there this afternoon/evening.
It was just a weird evening watching things unfold. But that is what makes this fun and interesting and why its my love and passion. To learn from each event!
Matt
"Could it have been due to a warm layer aloft? The lapse rates were just not that great. There was quite of bit of supercells at the onset with a good number of left movers that were interacting with other storms.
As Skip said, the storms were moving with the mean wind most of the time but when that storm west of Wynne, AR made a right turn the LL rotation substantially increased with a good meso from 3,000ft to 13,000ft and then started putting down tornadoes.
The storm further south looked pretty good on radar but just could never get that LL rotation even when the LLJ picked up later in the evening. And with pertains to both storms, I would of thought the further north storm would of had problems with inflow and rotation due to the southern storm but it backwards with the northern storm being the dominate one.
Im pretty shocked with the lack of tornado reports with this setup given the storms were able to stay discrete. Would of been nice to have V2 on these storms to see what the near storm environments were like"
Too add to that, looking at radar tonight it just looked like the storms were more LP in nature where they actually looked more wet and HPish on the cameras that were out there this afternoon/evening.
It was just a weird evening watching things unfold. But that is what makes this fun and interesting and why its my love and passion. To learn from each event!
Matt
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