here comes the big daddy!!

well looking at a WV loop our upper level wave is continuing to dig southeast across CA and will soon kick out and start moving east as now the main jet energy is now at the base of the trof. currently, the best pressure falls are across southern CA where as of 0z the sfc low sitting over southeast NV right now. with the best pressure falls down there you could wonder if it will track southeast towards the Grand Canyon across northern AZ and NM could verify instead of going through UT and CO.

ICT has been saying all day that the jet energy with this wave has been underdone by the models which could mean it could dig further south then progged. WV imagery looks to be supporting them for the time being. either way, an area of low pressure will emerge tomorrow and probably end up riding east across northern OK and then turning northeast going through MO to between quincy IL and STL to somewhere between gary and south bend, IN.

snow should begin here in the morning as the WAA kicks in and gets thrown over some pretty cold air. it will get heavier as the afternoon goes on and there could be some impressive rates nearing a 1"/hr in some spots. what happens next will be key. if the low can track alittle bit further southeast then most areas should stay snow due to alot of insentropic lift and some intense precip rates with a mix possible down near joliet and kankakee. I think it will come down to a nowcast event tomorrow but right now for amounts. I will go with a foot possible out by RFD. 6-9" from sugar grove to the elgin/streamwood area to 3-6 for the plainfield/bolingbrook area tampering to 2-4 for MDW. subject to change and will try to do another post late tonight after the 0z runs or in the morning.

all in all. a major winter storm is going to affect the area beginning the morning and lasting to weds afternoon with wind gusts nearing 45mph and creating possible blizzard conditions for a time weds morning.

Matt

Major winter storm on the way!!

first wave with snow associated with it is currently moving across the central plains with a band of 2-4 inches possibly setting up from parts of NE to southern WI. really dont think this will have a big play with the monster but maybe we'll get lucky and it will push the baroclinic zone a tad further south for the 2nd system to ride along.

current radar of the snow....

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php

now we get into the fun stuff. A long wave trof will dive into the western U.S. with a piece of energy associated with it and will be in the four corners region getting its act together tuesday morning.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_048l.gif

This piece of energy will kick out of the rockies as a surface low develops nicely and moves out of CO and will likely run along the KS/OK border.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_060l.gif

The surface low will then track ENE across southern MO and then into northwest IN by wednesday. heavy snow will be likely on the northwest side of the sfc low. also, WAA precip will fall out ahead of the low in the midwest during the day tuesday and will fall mostly in the form of snow and accumulate several inches before switching over to a mix during the evening in some locations.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_066l.gif

DSM,LSX,DVN,MKX, and LOT have all put out headlines for this storm with the afternoon packages with LOT going with WSW's for the fox river on west for accumulations of 10 inches near the rock river and 6 inches for the fox river valley, I am right along the fox river and on the southeast most edge of the winter storm watches.

I believe there is going to be a large spread of accumulations ranging from 1-2 far southeast to possibly over a foot out by RFD. all of this will depend on the track and a 50 mile shift will have major implications. a big player in the precip type further south will be the amount of WAA and if precip can stay snow in spots due to the amount of lift and precip rates or if the warming will overcome that and switch places over to a mix.

all in all, a very dynamic and very strong storm system. some models bringing it down to 980mb in northern IN with some insane with gusts nearing 50mph creating blizzard conditions in spots. wouldn't be suprised to see DVN and MKX go with blizzard watches/warnings as we near closer to the event.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_078l.gif

Here comes the storm and possible snow

Upper level low is currently moving slowly east over TX with the northern stream energy continuing to dig further south across the northern plains. seems as low the northern stream is diggind further south then some models and the RUC has picked up on that as well as developing a low near the gulf coast later on in a location a bit east of the NAM, pretty far west of the GFS and in line the best with the Euro run of last night.

here is a WV 24 loop where you can clearly see the ULL spinning in TX with the northern stream energy diving south....http://weather.cod.edu/loops/US-WV24.loop.html

There is already a 1000mb low in the gulf off the LA/TX coastline. there was not supposed to be a 1000mb for atleast another 12 hours. if the southern and northern stream can come together sooner then progged, we could end up with a slightly stronger solution with a track farther west.

Have the feeling some people could be suprised with a 2-4 inch snow band from MO through parts of IL into MI from late tomorrow night into thursday. the surface will track NNE across the OV, most likely from northern LA up through western TN then along the IN/OH border. along the way it will continue to deepen and should get down near 992 going into OH. this will aid in a defo band forming on the northwest side of the low and with CAA and heavy precip, that should help cool the column for all snow and possibly some nice rates for a time.

will try to have more later after the 0z runs come in.


Matt