LOT keeps extending the flood watch longer and longer and is now in effect until tomorrow afternoon which is a good idea. places in northern IL have got anywhere from 1.5 to 5 inches of rain so far with more on the way. keokuk county in southeast has recieved 11.75 inches and that report came in at 11am this morning so they should be well over a foot by now and its still coming down at a quick pace out there and should continue well into the overnight period.
synoptically we have an area of low pressure in northern MO that is barely moving with a sfc frontal boundary across central IL and a cold front extending down into OK. it has been raining all day on the north side of the frontal boundary in eastern IA and northwest IL with flood warnings out and rivers flooding very quicking and creating a dangerous situation. the sun has been out south of the front in central and southern IL and well as parts of MO closer to the sfc low. that has created some instability with SBCAPE at time approaching 2000 j/kg. cells have fired near the low and in central IL and have moved north enhancing the deformation axis band associated with old MCV/vort max.
there was even an MD out for areas near the sfc low/frontal boundary for isolated/brief tornadoes where low level shear was enhanced and instability could create a quick but strong rotating updraft, but I have not seen any good low level rotation or warnings with any of those cells. some have taken the low-topped supercell look for a scan or two but nothing special. there is still a small chance for a brief spin up with 0-1 helicity near 150 just northeast of the sfc low but should die down with the sun. best threat for any real thunderstorms looks to be from northeast MO to central IL area where cells are still firing in the better instability and there is currently a nice storm near 47,000ft just went of quincy getting ready to move into IL.
the RUC doesnt really want to move the 850 low much at all and keeps it stationary through 9z and therefore the best 850 winds/LLJ stay in eastern IA and along the mississippi. currently the defo axis is drifting south now as you can see on radar. I would say the axis for heavy rain to me looks to be from keokuk to wapello the east along and south of 88 and back around down to 80. you know how cells going up around the lincoln area where the better instability is and with better dynamics moving into the area as we get into later tonight we should see continuation of rain intensity and expanding in coverage. if the defo band can stall out for awhile somewhere it could drop alot of rain in a given area. my guess for highest totals would be where the defo band, strongest LLJ winds and dynamics intersect. so if I had to really nail it down I would say from keokuk, IA to princeton, IL for some serious heavy rain totals through tomorrow morning.
I feel like this is trying to forecast where the heavy snow band sets up cause usually when you hear deformation axis and good dynamic forcing moving into the area and even looking at the radar presentation with the true thunderstorms curling up into the colder air you think so just looking at it but its not.
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php
any storm has the potential to produce heavy rain in a short period of time with dew points in the upper 60's and 70's pooling right along the frontal boundary and PWATS between 1.6 and 1.9. we could be looking at rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour and maybe 3 later on for a time.
also, tropical storm danny looks like crap and is completely getting sheared apart right now. really dont see it becoming a hurricane but still an outside chance once it gets near the carolinas. will depend what the through does to it and how far it pushes it off the coast. just looks like a heavy rain threat and big waves/rip current threat all along the east coast.
after all this rain moves east tomorrow evening and we begin to dry out, high pressure looks to build in over the weekend with unseasonably cold air with temperatures dipping into the 40's possibly saturday and sunday night.
Matt
Thursday, August 27, 2009
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
LOT must of heard me rant....
Well I was sitting in the weather lab this morning with a buddy of mine ranting why LOT should have a flood watch up for the area. areas overnight got between .50 and 1.50 inches of rain with a stalled out frontal boundary across the area with dew points pooling in the upper 60's along, PWATS near 1.8 and heavy rain at the time this morning near DVN now over the LOT area. Clinton has already picked up 3.45 inches of rain.
and to add to the fact that there is a very pronounced MCV in southwest IA barely moving, this will move very slowly along the the front and will only aid in better forcing and create more heavy rain with the help of a low level jet later tonight. DVN's afd this afternoon said it could take until friday morning before the MCV moves through their CWA.
finally at 2pm today, LOT went with the flash flood watch until thursday evening (could be extended if the MCV moves that slow along the front). here is the text from the watch....
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING*
A STATIONARY FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN SUBURBS OF CHICAGO RECEIVED BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 4 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.
as you can see on radar, http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php... the MCV is currently in southwest IA producing heavy rain and also the heavy batch of rain in eastern IA moving into northern IL. I wouldnt be suprised to see some totals up near the 7 0r 8 inch mark after all is said and done.
on a side note that could turn alot more interesting over the next few days, tropical storm danny is out in the Atlantic trying get its act together and should become a hurricane in the next few days and could run up along the east coast....http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
Matt
and to add to the fact that there is a very pronounced MCV in southwest IA barely moving, this will move very slowly along the the front and will only aid in better forcing and create more heavy rain with the help of a low level jet later tonight. DVN's afd this afternoon said it could take until friday morning before the MCV moves through their CWA.
finally at 2pm today, LOT went with the flash flood watch until thursday evening (could be extended if the MCV moves that slow along the front). here is the text from the watch....
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING*
A STATIONARY FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN SUBURBS OF CHICAGO RECEIVED BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 4 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.
as you can see on radar, http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php... the MCV is currently in southwest IA producing heavy rain and also the heavy batch of rain in eastern IA moving into northern IL. I wouldnt be suprised to see some totals up near the 7 0r 8 inch mark after all is said and done.
on a side note that could turn alot more interesting over the next few days, tropical storm danny is out in the Atlantic trying get its act together and should become a hurricane in the next few days and could run up along the east coast....http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
Matt
Friday, August 21, 2009
EF-3 tornado!!
Our tornado that we saw was rated an EF-3 by the national weather service out of lincoln,IL. we saw it before it got to beason,IL and the damage we saw was in elkhart, IL.
A THIRD TORNADO TRAVELED FROM WILLIAMSVILLE...IN NORTHERNSANGAMON COUNTY...TO JUST EAST OF BEASON IN LOGAN COUNTY.THE TORNADO SET DOWN ON THE WEST SIDE OF WILLIAMSVILLE, JUSTEAST OF I-55...NEAR THE WILLIAMSVILLE EXIT...AT 319 PM. THETORNADO DESTROYED AN ANTIQUE MALL...DAMAGED THE CASEYSAND COLLAPSED THE CANOPY OVER THE GAS PUMPS. ONE PERSONWAS INJURED AT THE MALL...WHILE 2 MOTORCYCLE RIDERS WEREINJURED AS THE TORNADO THREW THEM FROM THEIR BIKES. THETORNADO CONTINUED NORTHEAST INTO WILLIAMSVILLE AND HIT ACHURCH...THROWING A 2-HORSE TRAILER ONTO THE ROOF OF THECHURCH...AND COLLAPSING THE ROOF OVER HALF OF THE BUILDING.ONE PERSON WAS INJURED IN THE CHURCH WHEN THE TORNADO HIT. THETORNADO THEN CONTINUED THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF TOWN DOINGMAINLY TREE DAMAGE AND SOME HOUSING DAMAGE. TWO HOMES LOST THEIRROOFS AND SEVERAL OTHER HOMES LOST PORTIONS OF THEIR ROOFS. THETORNADO ALSO CAVED IN THE SOUTHERN END OF A METALBUILDING...PART OF AN AGRICULTURE BUSINESS, ON THE EDGEOF TOWN. THE WIDTH OF THE TORNADO THROUGH TOWN RANGEDFROM 100-150 YARDS WIDE. THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED WAS135 MPH...DUE TO THE DAMAGE TO THE CHURCH. THE TORNADOWAS RATED AN EF2 AT WILLIAMSVILLE. 4 PEOPLE WERE INJUREDIN WILLIAMSVILLE.THE TORNADO CONTINUED ON THE GROUND...MOVING EAST NORTHEASTOF TOWN FLATTENING CORNFIELDS...DAMAGING FARM OUTBUILDINGSAND MACHINE SHEDS...DAMAGING HOMES...GARAGES...AND VEHICLES ONLESTER ROAD. ONE HOME WAS COMPLETELY DESTROYED...AND ANOTHERWITH EXTENSIVE DAMAGE AS THE TORNADO WIDENED TO 600 YARDS. A 19 MONTH OLD WAS INJURED AS THE FAMILY HOME WAS HIT BYTHE TORNADO. THE WINDS AT THESE LOCATIONS WERE ESTIMATEDTO BE ABOUT 140 MPH...WITH A TORNADO RATING OF EF3. THETORNADO CONTINUED THROUGH FIELDS CAUSING EXTENSIVE CROPDAMAGE UNTIL CROSSING INTO LOGAN COUNTY AT 326PM. THETORNADO WAS ON THE GROUND FOR 4.5 MILES IN SANGAMON COUNTY.THE TORNADO CONTINUED INTO LOGAN COUNTY TO THE NORTHEASTAND WIDENED TO CLOSE TO ONE HALF MILE AT SEVERAL PLACES.MULTIPLE HOMES HAD ROOFS AND WALLS GONE...OUTBUILDINGSBLOWN OVER A MILE AWAY...OUTBUILDINGS DESTROYED AND GRAINBINS BLOWN AWAY. THE TORNADO CONTINUED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREADTREE DAMAGE AND FLATTEN MANY CORN FIELDS. IN SOME PLACES THECORN WAS LAYING IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS...INDICATING THESTRENGTH OF THE TORNADO WINDS AS IT MOVED TO THE NORTHEAST.AT SOME PLACES...THE TORNADO DID WEAKEN...WHICH COINCIDESWITH THE ROTATION WEAKENING ON RADAR...BUT REMAINED ON THEGROUND. THE WIND SPEEDS OF THE TORNADO WERE ESTIMATED TO BE140 MPH AFTER IT CROSSED INTO LOGAN COUNTY COMPLETELYDESTROYING ANOTHER HOME...DECREASING TO 110-120 MPH AS ITMOVED TO AREAS BETWEEN LINCOLN AND MOUNT PULASKI. 2 INJURIESOCCURRED IN LOGAN COUNTY...AS TWO MEN WERE THROWN FROM AMAINTENANCE BUILDING AS THE TORNADO HIT. THE TORNADOCONTINUED NORTHEAST BEFORE WEAKENING TO SPEEDS OF 90-100 MPH,WITH A WIDTH OF 50-100 YARDS. THE TORNADO FINALLY DISSIPATEDJUST EAST OF BEASON AT 402PM. THE TORNADO WAS ON THE GROUNDIN LOGAN COUNTY FOR 20 MILES...WITH A MAXIMUM RATING OF EF3,MAINLY WHERE IT FIRST CROSSED INTO THE COUNTY.FROM WILLIAMSVILLE TO BEASON...THE TORNADO WAS ON THE GROUNDFOR 24.5 MILES...FROM 318-402PM...WITH A MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDOF 140MPH...WITH A TORNADO RATING OF EF3. THERE WERE 7 TOTALINJURIES.
A THIRD TORNADO TRAVELED FROM WILLIAMSVILLE...IN NORTHERNSANGAMON COUNTY...TO JUST EAST OF BEASON IN LOGAN COUNTY.THE TORNADO SET DOWN ON THE WEST SIDE OF WILLIAMSVILLE, JUSTEAST OF I-55...NEAR THE WILLIAMSVILLE EXIT...AT 319 PM. THETORNADO DESTROYED AN ANTIQUE MALL...DAMAGED THE CASEYSAND COLLAPSED THE CANOPY OVER THE GAS PUMPS. ONE PERSONWAS INJURED AT THE MALL...WHILE 2 MOTORCYCLE RIDERS WEREINJURED AS THE TORNADO THREW THEM FROM THEIR BIKES. THETORNADO CONTINUED NORTHEAST INTO WILLIAMSVILLE AND HIT ACHURCH...THROWING A 2-HORSE TRAILER ONTO THE ROOF OF THECHURCH...AND COLLAPSING THE ROOF OVER HALF OF THE BUILDING.ONE PERSON WAS INJURED IN THE CHURCH WHEN THE TORNADO HIT. THETORNADO THEN CONTINUED THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF TOWN DOINGMAINLY TREE DAMAGE AND SOME HOUSING DAMAGE. TWO HOMES LOST THEIRROOFS AND SEVERAL OTHER HOMES LOST PORTIONS OF THEIR ROOFS. THETORNADO ALSO CAVED IN THE SOUTHERN END OF A METALBUILDING...PART OF AN AGRICULTURE BUSINESS, ON THE EDGEOF TOWN. THE WIDTH OF THE TORNADO THROUGH TOWN RANGEDFROM 100-150 YARDS WIDE. THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED WAS135 MPH...DUE TO THE DAMAGE TO THE CHURCH. THE TORNADOWAS RATED AN EF2 AT WILLIAMSVILLE. 4 PEOPLE WERE INJUREDIN WILLIAMSVILLE.THE TORNADO CONTINUED ON THE GROUND...MOVING EAST NORTHEASTOF TOWN FLATTENING CORNFIELDS...DAMAGING FARM OUTBUILDINGSAND MACHINE SHEDS...DAMAGING HOMES...GARAGES...AND VEHICLES ONLESTER ROAD. ONE HOME WAS COMPLETELY DESTROYED...AND ANOTHERWITH EXTENSIVE DAMAGE AS THE TORNADO WIDENED TO 600 YARDS. A 19 MONTH OLD WAS INJURED AS THE FAMILY HOME WAS HIT BYTHE TORNADO. THE WINDS AT THESE LOCATIONS WERE ESTIMATEDTO BE ABOUT 140 MPH...WITH A TORNADO RATING OF EF3. THETORNADO CONTINUED THROUGH FIELDS CAUSING EXTENSIVE CROPDAMAGE UNTIL CROSSING INTO LOGAN COUNTY AT 326PM. THETORNADO WAS ON THE GROUND FOR 4.5 MILES IN SANGAMON COUNTY.THE TORNADO CONTINUED INTO LOGAN COUNTY TO THE NORTHEASTAND WIDENED TO CLOSE TO ONE HALF MILE AT SEVERAL PLACES.MULTIPLE HOMES HAD ROOFS AND WALLS GONE...OUTBUILDINGSBLOWN OVER A MILE AWAY...OUTBUILDINGS DESTROYED AND GRAINBINS BLOWN AWAY. THE TORNADO CONTINUED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREADTREE DAMAGE AND FLATTEN MANY CORN FIELDS. IN SOME PLACES THECORN WAS LAYING IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS...INDICATING THESTRENGTH OF THE TORNADO WINDS AS IT MOVED TO THE NORTHEAST.AT SOME PLACES...THE TORNADO DID WEAKEN...WHICH COINCIDESWITH THE ROTATION WEAKENING ON RADAR...BUT REMAINED ON THEGROUND. THE WIND SPEEDS OF THE TORNADO WERE ESTIMATED TO BE140 MPH AFTER IT CROSSED INTO LOGAN COUNTY COMPLETELYDESTROYING ANOTHER HOME...DECREASING TO 110-120 MPH AS ITMOVED TO AREAS BETWEEN LINCOLN AND MOUNT PULASKI. 2 INJURIESOCCURRED IN LOGAN COUNTY...AS TWO MEN WERE THROWN FROM AMAINTENANCE BUILDING AS THE TORNADO HIT. THE TORNADOCONTINUED NORTHEAST BEFORE WEAKENING TO SPEEDS OF 90-100 MPH,WITH A WIDTH OF 50-100 YARDS. THE TORNADO FINALLY DISSIPATEDJUST EAST OF BEASON AT 402PM. THE TORNADO WAS ON THE GROUNDIN LOGAN COUNTY FOR 20 MILES...WITH A MAXIMUM RATING OF EF3,MAINLY WHERE IT FIRST CROSSED INTO THE COUNTY.FROM WILLIAMSVILLE TO BEASON...THE TORNADO WAS ON THE GROUNDFOR 24.5 MILES...FROM 318-402PM...WITH A MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDOF 140MPH...WITH A TORNADO RATING OF EF3. THERE WERE 7 TOTALINJURIES.
Thursday, August 20, 2009
looks like awhile until next good svr threat/low-topped storms later today
well after yesterday I am a bit tired and have finally got all my pics and videos uploaded to my computer and will try to get more up here later.
storms currently firing and going on under the stacked low up that went up in the dry slot over portions of IA/WI. could see a small hail/dmg wind threat with these as they wont be able to grow that high due to only MLCAPE values of 500 and LI's mostly under -3, although with ok shear they should be able to sustain themselves until sunset.
more storms out in the OH valley with mostly a wind threat and possibly an isolated tornado and more storms down the the OK/AR area with hail and isolated tornadoes possible.
storms currently firing and going on under the stacked low up that went up in the dry slot over portions of IA/WI. could see a small hail/dmg wind threat with these as they wont be able to grow that high due to only MLCAPE values of 500 and LI's mostly under -3, although with ok shear they should be able to sustain themselves until sunset.
more storms out in the OH valley with mostly a wind threat and possibly an isolated tornado and more storms down the the OK/AR area with hail and isolated tornadoes possible.
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
what a day!! damage and tornado pics
here are some incredible damage pictures to a house near a corn field and a garage as was hit directly from a tornado just east of elkhart IL southeast of Lincoln around 3pm.
we were chasing the supercell and were traveling east of rd 10 and ran into the damage path of the tornado from about 20 mins before we got there.
we took some pictures and continued to the storm and ended up seeing two 2 tornadoes, although are to hard to see due to the contrast of them but they were for sure tornadoes.
corn stalks blown over
tornado 1, hard to see due to contrast.
tornado 2, very hard to see but if you look close can see it roping out, was better as we were farther away driving to it but roped out as we got closer and stopped, looked like it re-cycled and produced a good funnel about 10 mins after but never produced again.
we were chasing the supercell and were traveling east of rd 10 and ran into the damage path of the tornado from about 20 mins before we got there.
we took some pictures and continued to the storm and ended up seeing two 2 tornadoes, although are to hard to see due to the contrast of them but they were for sure tornadoes.
corn stalks blown over
tornado 1, hard to see due to contrast.
tornado 2, very hard to see but if you look close can see it roping out, was better as we were farther away driving to it but roped out as we got closer and stopped, looked like it re-cycled and produced a good funnel about 10 mins after but never produced again.
a very tough day but it paid off, will have more discussion later.
sleeper day??
well we are on I-80 with a preliminary target of keokuk, IA. woke up to not as much precip down there as progs were throwing out. there is still a bit of cloud cover but hopefully the sun will burn those up as the morning goes on. I am a bit worried about the storms in southern KS and the upper winds blowing off clouds to the northeast, going to have to watch what those do.
new 12z WRF is putting out better CAPE then previous runs with MLCAPE values near 2500 in the keokuk area with 500 flow near 50kts. like I said last night, bulk shear will be great and supercells will be the intial storm mode. best shear looks to be in western IL where better 850's and sfc winds are. not bad numbers in southeast IA/northeast MO. If a storm can go up and ride the WF, things could be very interesting, we just need the sun to come out and give us the good sfc heating.
DMX and EAX both mention the possibility of tornadoes this afternoon/evening and with the wording of the 13z day 1, I wouldnt be suprised if a upgrade to moderate occurs with the 1630z or 20z outlook. EAX also mentioned cloud cover burning up/thining out quicker then previously thought.
new 12z WRF is putting out better CAPE then previous runs with MLCAPE values near 2500 in the keokuk area with 500 flow near 50kts. like I said last night, bulk shear will be great and supercells will be the intial storm mode. best shear looks to be in western IL where better 850's and sfc winds are. not bad numbers in southeast IA/northeast MO. If a storm can go up and ride the WF, things could be very interesting, we just need the sun to come out and give us the good sfc heating.
DMX and EAX both mention the possibility of tornadoes this afternoon/evening and with the wording of the 13z day 1, I wouldnt be suprised if a upgrade to moderate occurs with the 1630z or 20z outlook. EAX also mentioned cloud cover burning up/thining out quicker then previously thought.
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
tomorrow has possibilities but morning rain will tell the tale
well my chase partners and I are leaving tomorrow morning around 9am and preliminary target of northern MO, dont want to end up in KS because that would be a longer drive home, but if thats going to be the area, we will be there. not going to say a town to target yet because alot will depend on where and if there is clearing in places in the morning and what areas will have the best heating. my gut right now is somewhere east of KC.
CAPE values will be highest in in eastern/northeast KS and according to the GFS, winds are more unidirectional there but the WRF has pretty good directionalshear/CAPE combo. will have to watch where the fronts setup and look for any OFB's that are left over from earlier convection. 0-6 shear wont be a problem so supercells will be the intial storm mode before congealing into a MCS after dark and moving east.
GFS has a nice s/w moving from north central KS/southern NE at 18z to northwest MO by 0z which will really aid in helping CI in the area. moisture wont be a problem with dews in the upper 60's and LCL's should be pretty good. I am also waiting to see what the RUC is going to say for tomorrow afternoon and if its closer to the WRF or the GFS.
If you look at radar now, http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php
the line of heavy precip is almost into central KS from border to border north and south and the area of rain behind that in western KS is weakening. this line should strengthen some with the LLJ but you would think the line would be in MO by early morning and I dont see convection going up behind this line like the models are putting out.
just a FWIW, forbes tor con for eastern KS tomorrow is 4, northern MO is 6 and western IL is 5. he seemed pretty impressed with the setup but I just cant buy into the whole thing yet with all the precip progs are breaking out. I hope to awaken to less rain down there and maybe the start of one last good chase day for this year.
CAPE values will be highest in in eastern/northeast KS and according to the GFS, winds are more unidirectional there but the WRF has pretty good directionalshear/CAPE combo. will have to watch where the fronts setup and look for any OFB's that are left over from earlier convection. 0-6 shear wont be a problem so supercells will be the intial storm mode before congealing into a MCS after dark and moving east.
GFS has a nice s/w moving from north central KS/southern NE at 18z to northwest MO by 0z which will really aid in helping CI in the area. moisture wont be a problem with dews in the upper 60's and LCL's should be pretty good. I am also waiting to see what the RUC is going to say for tomorrow afternoon and if its closer to the WRF or the GFS.
If you look at radar now, http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php
the line of heavy precip is almost into central KS from border to border north and south and the area of rain behind that in western KS is weakening. this line should strengthen some with the LLJ but you would think the line would be in MO by early morning and I dont see convection going up behind this line like the models are putting out.
just a FWIW, forbes tor con for eastern KS tomorrow is 4, northern MO is 6 and western IL is 5. he seemed pretty impressed with the setup but I just cant buy into the whole thing yet with all the precip progs are breaking out. I hope to awaken to less rain down there and maybe the start of one last good chase day for this year.
Monday, August 17, 2009
Gosh why does there have to be some much precip on this ugh, it could just be convective feedback but I guess we'll see. anyways, these are some grabs off the new WRF that just came out. I just want to get out there and chase!
500 flow is ok, better in northern MO but the models have been jumping around with the placement of where the best flow is but have been consistent on flow being AOA 30kts in the area and up to 45kts in some spots. this is will aid in bulk shear being good and supercells do look like a real possibility if things play out.
When I see this I first get excited cause usually 700 temps would be warmer then what they are going to be for this setup and seeing the s/w's on the map like this is a very good sign, the last few setups have not had any waves like this coming through aiding in CI. but the problem I worry about with this setup is alot of waves moving through with 700 temps low, meaning alot of ongoing precip to hamper daytime heating.
also the 850 jet is aiding in early precip because as you can see its pretty strong. this is at 7pm weds night. with 500 flow out of the west and 850s out of the southwest and southerly to slighty backed sfc winds, you know shear is pretty good.
here is the dreaded precip map for 7pm weds evening. alot of ongoing precip intensifying by this time in KS but the thing about this run is the precip that is there from southern NE to OAX develops rapidly between 18z and 0z with CAPE values AOA 2000 and dew points in the mid to upper 60's, with this setup you will need to get west of the ongoing and find the areas of clearing and sunshine and hope enough time is aloud to heat everything up and get rapid development later in the afternoon.
here is the 0-1 helicity map for at 0z. best values in northeast KS due to the 850 jet being stronger but descent values back up into the OAK and western IA area.
0-1 EHI values are best in northeast KS as you can see. if you can clear that area out nicely and give it time, it could be very interesting in extreme northeast KS.
500 flow is ok, better in northern MO but the models have been jumping around with the placement of where the best flow is but have been consistent on flow being AOA 30kts in the area and up to 45kts in some spots. this is will aid in bulk shear being good and supercells do look like a real possibility if things play out.
When I see this I first get excited cause usually 700 temps would be warmer then what they are going to be for this setup and seeing the s/w's on the map like this is a very good sign, the last few setups have not had any waves like this coming through aiding in CI. but the problem I worry about with this setup is alot of waves moving through with 700 temps low, meaning alot of ongoing precip to hamper daytime heating.
also the 850 jet is aiding in early precip because as you can see its pretty strong. this is at 7pm weds night. with 500 flow out of the west and 850s out of the southwest and southerly to slighty backed sfc winds, you know shear is pretty good.
here is the dreaded precip map for 7pm weds evening. alot of ongoing precip intensifying by this time in KS but the thing about this run is the precip that is there from southern NE to OAX develops rapidly between 18z and 0z with CAPE values AOA 2000 and dew points in the mid to upper 60's, with this setup you will need to get west of the ongoing and find the areas of clearing and sunshine and hope enough time is aloud to heat everything up and get rapid development later in the afternoon.
here is the 0-1 helicity map for at 0z. best values in northeast KS due to the 850 jet being stronger but descent values back up into the OAK and western IA area.
0-1 EHI values are best in northeast KS as you can see. if you can clear that area out nicely and give it time, it could be very interesting in extreme northeast KS.
the best area is still uncertain as we are 2 days away but progs coming into better agreement on alot of things. ongoing precip to me seems like the biggest concern. will most likely be chasing this. dont want to have to drive all the way to northeast KS but hey if thats where its going to be, I want to be there. you never know, it could be in southern IA,northern MO or even western IL if there is less precip in the morning there then progs are throwing and we can get good CAPE cause shear is for sure there.
well new GFS is out so guess I will summarize that. GFS wind profiles look a bit more undirectional between 500 and 850. CAPE bullseye of 3500 near KC. it does look to have a bit more of isolated precip at 0z rather then the WRF. LI's near -9 in the same area and LCL's pretty lowest in northeast KS and northern MO.
Overall it looks pretty good. will probably stay up and see what the new day 2 outlook says cause Im a weather nerd and thats what I do.
Oh and just looked at the 21z SREF, that says western IL!! ugh computer models. I will post images in a bit.
August 19th severe weather
Here are two graphics I grabbed really quick. the first one if off the SREF model and what I loike to look at when looking for tornadic potential, that map is for weds evening at 7pm. SPC already has out 30% probs in the day 3 outlook and things look interesting if everything plays out.
The 18z WRF looks to have pushed everything a bit east into southern IA/northern MO and possibly western IL. KS also could be a good play but is a farther drive for me. synoptically the setup does look good. good 500 flow near 40-50kts and 850s and sfc winds are also good. CAPE looks good as does shear. ongoing precip will have to be watched as usual with most of the setups around here.
will have more later, waiting for the 18z GFS. I plan on chasing this setup if things pan out.
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