snow on sunday??

yes it is possible, snow in mid october. It happened back in 2006 and we get 0.3" and I believe it was one of the earliest if not the earliest measurable snowfalls to chicagoland. and it looks like it could repeat itself sunday night if things work out as planned.

a very cold air mass will works it way down across the northern plains starting at the end of the week and the midwest feeling the brunt of it this weekend. If a wave and run along the leading edge of the cold air and tap the moisture laddened atmosphere to the south then we could possibly see the first flakes off the winter, or should i say fall, around here. 850mb temps look to be hovering around -5 to -8 and that would support snow. would have to worry about a warm layer closer to the sfc but sleet/freezing rain will not happen with the lower levels being so warm. with it being so cold aloft it would either be rain and/or snow. usually in the heart of winter you can use the 0 degrees at 850mb as a rain/snow line but not this early in the season. the last few runs of the GFS have supported snow around here sunday night into monday morning.

the surface temperatures are still in the 50's if I had to guess so anything that falls would have alot of trouble sticking but if we got a period of moderate to heavy snow then I could see it sticking on grassy surfaces. its still 5-6 days away and the models could completely change and warm us up or push the system further south and make us even colder, but there is that chance right now and Im going to take full advantage of hyping up the first snowfall, and because its the october 6th!!!!

so I myself and really hoping for snow this weekend and will be looking at every model and every run until the event/day gets here. I am back in winter mode!!


Matt