Well the major tornado outbreak did not happen and now comes the fun part of trying to figure out what happened to not allow for tornadoes to come out of the many supercells that were in AR this evening. I was fully expecting AR to go completely insane with full out supercells with big tornadoes in them all evening. That was not the case. There is a discussion going on ST and this is what my thoughts were:
"Could it have been due to a warm layer aloft? The lapse rates were just not that great. There was quite of bit of supercells at the onset with a good number of left movers that were interacting with other storms.
As Skip said, the storms were moving with the mean wind most of the time but when that storm west of Wynne, AR made a right turn the LL rotation substantially increased with a good meso from 3,000ft to 13,000ft and then started putting down tornadoes.
The storm further south looked pretty good on radar but just could never get that LL rotation even when the LLJ picked up later in the evening. And with pertains to both storms, I would of thought the further north storm would of had problems with inflow and rotation due to the southern storm but it backwards with the northern storm being the dominate one.
Im pretty shocked with the lack of tornado reports with this setup given the storms were able to stay discrete. Would of been nice to have V2 on these storms to see what the near storm environments were like"
Too add to that, looking at radar tonight it just looked like the storms were more LP in nature where they actually looked more wet and HPish on the cameras that were out there this afternoon/evening.
It was just a weird evening watching things unfold. But that is what makes this fun and interesting and why its my love and passion. To learn from each event!
Matt
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