A little bit of forecasting feels good

Well it's been awhile....here goes.. Most places will hit 100 tomorrow, except maybe up in southeast WI and the lake breeze will get to that area first but we'll see. Sitting under/near the 850mb thermal axis in the morning should really give this area a good head start and allow for temps to rapidly heat up quickly and possibly near/at 100 by 18z. I said 102 at ORD so we'll see how that pans out. Places further south like PIA/BMI/SPI will be warmer, possibly 105-108. I'm curious to see the quality of the low level moisture we get given it's been god awful dry around here but the GFS has been the best model the past two days in relation to sfc dew points in the central plains and in IA today where the NAM/RAP were 5-10 degrees too low this afternoon. The recent heavy rains out there the past few weeks might be playing a role in that though, but dew points of 78-81 were realized in IA today like the GFS had and that model is the most bullish for IL tomorrow pooling upper 70 to near 80 dews along/north of the boundary. If we get those realized with temps near/over 100, the HI readings will be a lot higher than what are being forecasted right now. And to be honest it kind of ticks me off that some offices are discounting the more bullish solutions of the GFS regarding moisture right off the bat saying quality of moisture is in question blah blah blah. So a part of me hopes we see higher dew points for just that reason. DSM got burned today riding the NAM and under forecasted dew points in the western half of IA. Now about convection chances..I'll start off by saying I'll be surprised if both the lake breeze and/or the E-W frontal boundary doesn't pop storms between say 22-6z late in the afternoon to around midnight. Yes we have a fairly strong cap but it's breakable IMO. Models are all over the place with many solutions as to how things play out and I've looked at most to get an idea. The 4km WRF has a whole lot of nothing, the NSSL WRF lights up the lake breeze by 22z with a likely supercell to MCS transition, the WRF ARW has a big eastern IA-northern IL MCS overnight. It's going to come down to real analysis tomorrow watching the WV loop trying to pick out any little ripples in the flow along the srn fringe/north side of the ridge tomorrow afteroon. Models are hinting at some CAA at H7 late tomorrow with hints of weak ascent but will convergence be enough? Tons of sfc heating but will storms go and if they do, do they fully breach the cap or struggle and die? Right now I think we have a better shot at seeing convection fire off the frontal boundary in IA and tracking eastward into IL during the late evening/overnight hours. I'm a bit more iffy on lake breeze storms right now. SPC going with a "see text" for now and I think that's a good call until further mesoscale details are resolved. Matt