Well tornado season really got cranking this afternoon and evening in CO to KS down into the TX PH where 30 tornadoes have been reported so far and that number should continue to go up. Today was only the start of it and tomorrow and saturday look to be just as big if not bigger.
I cant chase tomorrow but if I was I would target Falls City, NE where the triple point/warm front is going to setup. The new NAM is showing H5 winds greater then 50kts out of the southwest nosing up into the area by late afternoon into the evening with southerly 850's and backed sfc winds up against the WF with nice convergence.
Storms will be ongoing in the morning but should clear out by the afternoon as the dry intrusion moves into the area and allows for destabilization to occur with CAPE values approaching 2500 j/kg by 0z with dew points nearing the mid 60s into the triple point and bumping up against the warm front with a nice theata-e axis.
Look for storms to fire during the afternoon hours between 20-22z with all modes of severe weather possible with any supercells that do form. could see some pretty large hail given the steep lapse rates. tornadoes will also be a pretty sizeable threat given the amount of shear that will be in place
Going to be an active day even though I wont be out and then we get to saturday....
Matt
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