Go west young man....after work.

Well after a nice supercell today along the KS/NE border with a thousand chasers and there mom on....they should be alittle bit more spread out tomorrow given the wider area at risk for severe weather tomorrow as the trough continues its way east along with the amazing dynamics of this system. I have never seen this strong a jet in the month of april. 100kts at 500mb is just stupid.




Tomorrow has possibilities but with most setups around here there are the problems that could hamper the possibility of tornadic supercells on the cold front tomorrow in IA/MO and possibly IL. But there are also some good things like the shear storms are going to have to work with. I am kind of concerned with the moisture and low to mid 60 dew points are going to get up here in time, we shall see.

1. Ongoing convection as usual will have to be watched in the morning tomorrow and if it will move out of the area with enough time to get destabilization to occur. If there is alot of clouds then were not going to get enough instability for thunderstorms later on. The one plus about this is that there is the possibility of an OFB being left out.

2. Clearing- Tomorrow could be one of those days where the area is socked in clouds but one small area could see some sun for a few hours and that will be it, going to have to watch vis sat alot tomorrow to see what is going on.

3. Storm motions- These bad boys are going to be hauling tomorrow between 40-50kts which means staying on them is going to be very tough. going to have to sit east of where CI takes place and let them come to you if you want to have a shot.

4. Mode- There is quite a bit of forcing tomorrow and the question if and how long storms can remain discrete. If they can remain discrete they will go supercellular given the shear they are going to have to work with but if there is alot of forcing its going to be a honkin squall line with possible embedded supercells.

Here is an image taken off the 21z SREF showing tornado ingredients which combines different parameters which are needed for tornadoes.



The new SPC day 1 outlook just came out and showing the best risk west of the Miss. river in IA/MO which I had suspected. Its going to be interesting to see if things are linear or discrete. Everything should form into a line and move into northern IL before weakening overnight.



I will not be able to chase until after work at 4 or 4 30pm so im hoping the CF is a bit faster and the storms get here sooner then expected but Im not so confident in that happening.

If I was able to chase with more time and get to a target Id head to IA be somewhere in the Oskaloosa to Iowa City to Fairfield triangle.


Matt