well my chase partners and I are leaving tomorrow morning around 9am and preliminary target of northern MO, dont want to end up in KS because that would be a longer drive home, but if thats going to be the area, we will be there. not going to say a town to target yet because alot will depend on where and if there is clearing in places in the morning and what areas will have the best heating. my gut right now is somewhere east of KC.
CAPE values will be highest in in eastern/northeast KS and according to the GFS, winds are more unidirectional there but the WRF has pretty good directionalshear/CAPE combo. will have to watch where the fronts setup and look for any OFB's that are left over from earlier convection. 0-6 shear wont be a problem so supercells will be the intial storm mode before congealing into a MCS after dark and moving east.
GFS has a nice s/w moving from north central KS/southern NE at 18z to northwest MO by 0z which will really aid in helping CI in the area. moisture wont be a problem with dews in the upper 60's and LCL's should be pretty good. I am also waiting to see what the RUC is going to say for tomorrow afternoon and if its closer to the WRF or the GFS.
If you look at radar now, http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php
the line of heavy precip is almost into central KS from border to border north and south and the area of rain behind that in western KS is weakening. this line should strengthen some with the LLJ but you would think the line would be in MO by early morning and I dont see convection going up behind this line like the models are putting out.
just a FWIW, forbes tor con for eastern KS tomorrow is 4, northern MO is 6 and western IL is 5. he seemed pretty impressed with the setup but I just cant buy into the whole thing yet with all the precip progs are breaking out. I hope to awaken to less rain down there and maybe the start of one last good chase day for this year.
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