Gosh why does there have to be some much precip on this ugh, it could just be convective feedback but I guess we'll see. anyways, these are some grabs off the new WRF that just came out. I just want to get out there and chase!



500 flow is ok, better in northern MO but the models have been jumping around with the placement of where the best flow is but have been consistent on flow being AOA 30kts in the area and up to 45kts in some spots. this is will aid in bulk shear being good and supercells do look like a real possibility if things play out.


When I see this I first get excited cause usually 700 temps would be warmer then what they are going to be for this setup and seeing the s/w's on the map like this is a very good sign, the last few setups have not had any waves like this coming through aiding in CI. but the problem I worry about with this setup is alot of waves moving through with 700 temps low, meaning alot of ongoing precip to hamper daytime heating.


also the 850 jet is aiding in early precip because as you can see its pretty strong. this is at 7pm weds night. with 500 flow out of the west and 850s out of the southwest and southerly to slighty backed sfc winds, you know shear is pretty good.

here is the dreaded precip map for 7pm weds evening. alot of ongoing precip intensifying by this time in KS but the thing about this run is the precip that is there from southern NE to OAX develops rapidly between 18z and 0z with CAPE values AOA 2000 and dew points in the mid to upper 60's, with this setup you will need to get west of the ongoing and find the areas of clearing and sunshine and hope enough time is aloud to heat everything up and get rapid development later in the afternoon.

here is the 0-1 helicity map for at 0z. best values in northeast KS due to the 850 jet being stronger but descent values back up into the OAK and western IA area.

0-1 EHI values are best in northeast KS as you can see. if you can clear that area out nicely and give it time, it could be very interesting in extreme northeast KS.

the best area is still uncertain as we are 2 days away but progs coming into better agreement on alot of things. ongoing precip to me seems like the biggest concern. will most likely be chasing this. dont want to have to drive all the way to northeast KS but hey if thats where its going to be, I want to be there. you never know, it could be in southern IA,northern MO or even western IL if there is less precip in the morning there then progs are throwing and we can get good CAPE cause shear is for sure there.

well new GFS is out so guess I will summarize that. GFS wind profiles look a bit more undirectional between 500 and 850. CAPE bullseye of 3500 near KC. it does look to have a bit more of isolated precip at 0z rather then the WRF. LI's near -9 in the same area and LCL's pretty lowest in northeast KS and northern MO.

Overall it looks pretty good. will probably stay up and see what the new day 2 outlook says cause Im a weather nerd and thats what I do.

Oh and just looked at the 21z SREF, that says western IL!! ugh computer models. I will post images in a bit.