well we are on I-80 with a preliminary target of keokuk, IA. woke up to not as much precip down there as progs were throwing out. there is still a bit of cloud cover but hopefully the sun will burn those up as the morning goes on. I am a bit worried about the storms in southern KS and the upper winds blowing off clouds to the northeast, going to have to watch what those do.
new 12z WRF is putting out better CAPE then previous runs with MLCAPE values near 2500 in the keokuk area with 500 flow near 50kts. like I said last night, bulk shear will be great and supercells will be the intial storm mode. best shear looks to be in western IL where better 850's and sfc winds are. not bad numbers in southeast IA/northeast MO. If a storm can go up and ride the WF, things could be very interesting, we just need the sun to come out and give us the good sfc heating.
DMX and EAX both mention the possibility of tornadoes this afternoon/evening and with the wording of the 13z day 1, I wouldnt be suprised if a upgrade to moderate occurs with the 1630z or 20z outlook. EAX also mentioned cloud cover burning up/thining out quicker then previously thought.
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