Major winter storm on the way!!

first wave with snow associated with it is currently moving across the central plains with a band of 2-4 inches possibly setting up from parts of NE to southern WI. really dont think this will have a big play with the monster but maybe we'll get lucky and it will push the baroclinic zone a tad further south for the 2nd system to ride along.

current radar of the snow....

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php

now we get into the fun stuff. A long wave trof will dive into the western U.S. with a piece of energy associated with it and will be in the four corners region getting its act together tuesday morning.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_048l.gif

This piece of energy will kick out of the rockies as a surface low develops nicely and moves out of CO and will likely run along the KS/OK border.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_060l.gif

The surface low will then track ENE across southern MO and then into northwest IN by wednesday. heavy snow will be likely on the northwest side of the sfc low. also, WAA precip will fall out ahead of the low in the midwest during the day tuesday and will fall mostly in the form of snow and accumulate several inches before switching over to a mix during the evening in some locations.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_066l.gif

DSM,LSX,DVN,MKX, and LOT have all put out headlines for this storm with the afternoon packages with LOT going with WSW's for the fox river on west for accumulations of 10 inches near the rock river and 6 inches for the fox river valley, I am right along the fox river and on the southeast most edge of the winter storm watches.

I believe there is going to be a large spread of accumulations ranging from 1-2 far southeast to possibly over a foot out by RFD. all of this will depend on the track and a 50 mile shift will have major implications. a big player in the precip type further south will be the amount of WAA and if precip can stay snow in spots due to the amount of lift and precip rates or if the warming will overcome that and switch places over to a mix.

all in all, a very dynamic and very strong storm system. some models bringing it down to 980mb in northern IN with some insane with gusts nearing 50mph creating blizzard conditions in spots. wouldn't be suprised to see DVN and MKX go with blizzard watches/warnings as we near closer to the event.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_078l.gif