well looking at a WV loop our upper level wave is continuing to dig southeast across CA and will soon kick out and start moving east as now the main jet energy is now at the base of the trof. currently, the best pressure falls are across southern CA where as of 0z the sfc low sitting over southeast NV right now. with the best pressure falls down there you could wonder if it will track southeast towards the Grand Canyon across northern AZ and NM could verify instead of going through UT and CO.
ICT has been saying all day that the jet energy with this wave has been underdone by the models which could mean it could dig further south then progged. WV imagery looks to be supporting them for the time being. either way, an area of low pressure will emerge tomorrow and probably end up riding east across northern OK and then turning northeast going through MO to between quincy IL and STL to somewhere between gary and south bend, IN.
snow should begin here in the morning as the WAA kicks in and gets thrown over some pretty cold air. it will get heavier as the afternoon goes on and there could be some impressive rates nearing a 1"/hr in some spots. what happens next will be key. if the low can track alittle bit further southeast then most areas should stay snow due to alot of insentropic lift and some intense precip rates with a mix possible down near joliet and kankakee. I think it will come down to a nowcast event tomorrow but right now for amounts. I will go with a foot possible out by RFD. 6-9" from sugar grove to the elgin/streamwood area to 3-6 for the plainfield/bolingbrook area tampering to 2-4 for MDW. subject to change and will try to do another post late tonight after the 0z runs or in the morning.
all in all. a major winter storm is going to affect the area beginning the morning and lasting to weds afternoon with wind gusts nearing 45mph and creating possible blizzard conditions for a time weds morning.
Matt
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